Official(and only) NBA DRAFT thread. - take2
I'm just going to keep re-freshing this diary every so often, as the only place for draft talk.
Key Draft dates, thanks to Sactown Royalty:
April 27 is the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft. Remember, as long as they do not hire representation they can change their mind and go back to school.
May 20 is ping pong ball day, the day that the 14 lottery teams have their draft slots determined.
June 16 is the deadline for underclassmen that have not retained representation to pull out of the draft and go back to school.
June 26 is the draft.
FanPosts are user-created posts from the BlogABull community, and are to be treated as the opinions and views of that particular user, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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Mock Lottery has Bulls at 9th taking Love
by Ozzie Montana on Apr 11, 2008 6:37 PM CDT 0 recs
I have visions of a Gray-Love lineup.
by wjb1492 on
Apr 11, 2008 7:32 PM CDT
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Isn't Gray and Love...
One of the signs of the apocoylypse?
Don't call me doughboy!
by Khalid El-Amin on
Apr 20, 2008 12:01 PM CDT
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Only if he's got a big heart
Hell, let’s just trade for Curry and re-sign Khalid El-Amin and Sweetney and open a fat camp while we’re at it.
by Sports2 on
Apr 25, 2008 6:31 PM CDT
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I wouldn't mind Love
by RogersPark Kris on
Apr 11, 2008 8:20 PM CDT
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What, you mean you'd pass up the chance
I was hoping that could be Boylan's first inbounds play ever.
by bullhockey on
Apr 11, 2008 10:16 PM CDT
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love over Deandre?
by armstrong2389 on Apr 11, 2008 6:53 PM CDT 0 recs
Paxson
by jpchi on
Apr 11, 2008 8:40 PM CDT
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Lets say we get lucky and the #1 overall pick
by eross226 on Apr 11, 2008 10:49 PM CDT 0 recs
Rose. No doubt.
by Illini15 on
Apr 11, 2008 11:06 PM CDT
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PGs who were top 5 in the lottery
Williams went #3 and Paul went #4.That was 2005, and it wasn't as if the entire draft went that well for lottery PG's. Raymond Felton went #5, and he's nowhere near the level of Williams and Paul.
In '04 Ben Gordon went #3 and Devin Harris went #5. They're good but also nowhere near Williams and Paul (and BG was listed as a PG coming out of college).
For PG's selected top 5 before those two you'd have to go back to '02 with Jay Williams, and the jury is out as far as how good he could have been.
And before that you're looking at Bibby in '98.
Out of all these guys, it's really only Williams and Paul who have been pretty much surpassing expectations year after year.
Rose definitely seems like an impact player, but even if he's as good as Derron Williams (who is also listed as 6'3), Derron had to wait until his second year before really taking charge.
It would be nothing less than a dream scenario for the Bulls to get this kid, but I'd bet money against it, unfortunately.
by bullhockey on
Apr 11, 2008 11:38 PM CDT
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Deron Williams
by piccolomair on
Apr 14, 2008 12:06 PM CDT
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Bad logic
Second, point guards who are drafted top 5 usually pan out. See: Kidd, Billups, Baron, Deron, Paul. Say what you want about Felton and Antonio Daniels, but they both had weaknesses coming in (shooting and passing, respectively) that Rose just doesn't have, and still they've had pretty productive careers.
I think you're right that we'd have to wait a year or two for Rose to really flourish, but so what? We aren't expecting a championship run next year anyway.
by YaoPau on
Apr 14, 2008 10:22 PM CDT
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I'd be more than happy with the #2 pick,
by alec on
Apr 11, 2008 11:11 PM CDT
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Beasley
Rose is very good, but I think you draft Beasley and start thinking about dealing him down for the player you really wanted and getting back some change as in draft picks or dumping one of our many contracts.
by NBA Observer on
Apr 12, 2008 10:00 AM CDT
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No doubt Beasley is awesome.
My question is I don't know if that translates for a (likely) 6' 7 1/2" PF in the NBA. Yes, some guys have done it, but if he were 6' 10" or even a legit 6' 9" I'd feel more confident in his ability to impact the NBA.
Rose, on the other hand, has relatively more dominant physical tools for the position he'll play at the next level. With the rules changes freeing up perimeter play, Rose will come in Day 1 as possibly the biggest athletic mismatch among NBA PG's.
by alec on
Apr 12, 2008 10:24 AM CDT
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Beasley should measure at 6'9" in shoes
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 8:40 AM CDT
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I have no doubt
Rose looks to me like a future transcendent star.
Yes, moving into the top two is a nice dream...but no, I wouldn't bet my house on it. :)
by alec on
Apr 14, 2008 9:10 AM CDT
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I'm not going to shed any tears
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 9:58 AM CDT
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20/10
by jpchi on
Apr 14, 2008 2:43 PM CDT
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I had Deron better than Paul
Most of all I remember Chris Paul and the Wake Forest coming into Assembly Hall as the #1 overall team and then getting spanked by an Illinois who then became the #1 overall team led by Deron Williams in the 2004-05 CBB run. The Illini were up 30 in that game.
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 3:06 PM CDT
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that sounds like how Paxson scouts
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 14, 2008 3:42 PM CDT
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Nobody pays attention
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 5:32 PM CDT
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actually they are pretty early in the season
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 14, 2008 6:24 PM CDT
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Beasley is Kenyon Martin
by RogersPark Kris on
Apr 14, 2008 3:09 PM CDT
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Beasley slighting is getting old
Pts Reb
Freshman 2.8 3.4
Sophomore 9.9 8.9
Junior 10.1 6.9
Senior 18.9 9.7
Here is one season Beasley in the third best conference this year, the Big 12
Pts Reb
Freshman 26.2 12.4
He even topped Durants freshman numbers. If you want a PG, fine. But don't act like rose is clearly a HOF player and Beasley might make an all-star game or two. Rose still can't shoot unless he's wide open or within 10 feet.
by cjurmann on
Apr 14, 2008 4:30 PM CDT
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I hope the Bulls end up with
Sign and trade the pick and some of our players for Monte?
by Freethefro on Apr 12, 2008 10:43 AM CDT 0 recs
He is a RFA
by Ozzie Montana on
Apr 12, 2008 12:32 PM CDT
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right, they dumped Richardson
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 12, 2008 2:09 PM CDT
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It still may not happen for them
by Freethefro on
Apr 14, 2008 7:48 PM CDT
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Monta Ellis' defense
Monta is an incredibly poor defender. Playing for GSW allows him to focus 99% of his time on scoring.
I like Monta's offensive game. It's special. However, he is monstrous defensive liability that would be worse than Gordon. I like our draft options to improve at the guard position more than through Monta.
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 8:53 AM CDT
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Gordon and pick
by armstrong2389 on Apr 12, 2008 10:49 AM CDT 0 recs
hang on
by Stay Chisel on
Apr 18, 2008 10:01 AM CDT
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LOL
by bullhockey on
Apr 18, 2008 10:08 AM CDT
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I've been pulling for Brook Lopez,
They have a pretty good team with a giant hole in the middle. Darko's line last night: ten minutes, one rebound, no points...no shots, even.
by alec on Apr 12, 2008 11:18 AM CDT 0 recs
Quick check shows season averages of
But if you were a losing team with a gaping hole in the middle, wouldn't you play this guy more than 24 minutes per game?
by bullhockey on
Apr 12, 2008 12:03 PM CDT
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Well Pao was there for a while
by Ozzie Montana on
Apr 12, 2008 12:19 PM CDT
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draftexpress top 10
by hughes sucks on Apr 12, 2008 5:12 PM CDT 0 recs
Where can you find past deals for draft picks?
by tyger1147 on Apr 12, 2008 5:54 PM CDT 0 recs
I forget the link
by Ozzie Montana on
Apr 13, 2008 9:58 PM CDT
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I thought this team should be consolidating
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 14, 2008 9:42 AM CDT
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It's my youth movement plan.
I was going to type this up, but I'm lazy, and I couldn't "figure out" exactly how the future would work out. I know you and hot shit believe in the "good players make a good team make champions" theory, but I'm less convinced of that than ever. I'm on the big-risk, huge-reward mission of getting James. It's lame and difficult, and I know for a fact won't happen (also why I decided not to type it up as a diary), but it is:
Re-sign Deng and Gordon. Trade down and draft Darren Collison. Trade Nocioni and future picks for ability to draft Brandon Rush*. If they're never able to get LBJ, then I think it still ends up being an above-average team w/ some, but limited, "greatness" potential.
In the huge 2009/10 off-season, they'll have Huges coming off the books and will also have Hinrich, Deng and Gordon available for sign-and-trades for James. If they get James and keep enough of the good stuff around, I think Collison, Gordon/Rush in the backcourt and Thomas and Noah in the frontcourt is the absolutely perfect complement to James. Another good ball-handler, two great shooters, all good-to-great defenders, all the same age.
And if they don't get James, I still think this team is good enough to compete and with the right coach could get back to "being one of the better teams". And in the end, I think that's all you can ask for. You get young, above-average players, hope you can develop them into either great players or assets to be traded for great players. I don't think it's so risky that it risks falling completely apart.
Anyway...
*If they draft Rush, Thabo would hopefully become redundant and they'd be able to trade him for assets. Nocioni plus future picks for Rush AND THEN Thabo for ____, I think would be greater than what they have now. Maybe not.
by tyger1147 on
Apr 14, 2008 11:28 AM CDT
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Lebron is overrated
McGrady and Lebron also both take alot of stupid long jumpers, because they are so enamored with themselves, which hurts their efficiency.
by iBurkey on
Apr 16, 2008 6:53 PM CDT
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Path Dependence
by Sports2 on
Apr 14, 2008 1:14 PM CDT
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technically it's harder to do
Who said that was the plan before anyway? They were building a team with Ben Wallace as the next step. yikes.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 14, 2008 2:21 PM CDT
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and besides, asking how 'consolidation'
doesn't mean that it's a good idea to stockpile middling young players you'll find in the mid-round, since they already have a whole roster full of them. Clearly they're not interested in developing more Ced Simmons, as they're not doing much with the original version.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 14, 2008 2:27 PM CDT
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Flows, not stocks
It's about replacing expensive middling players with cheaper players who can do the same thing.
A middling player, by definition, is a guy that's probably not really worth what he gets when he signs a second contract in the NBA. Rookie contracts undervalue players, follow on contracts overvalue them. That's the trick to the salary cap. If you re-sign your own guys, you end up with a capped out middling team.
Obviously, if you're going to be successful, you can't let everyone go when they're off their rookie deal. But you have to be judicious in who you're going to give follow on contracts to. Or any FA contracts for that matter. The "going rate" is simply a lot higher for those guys and teams can't afford to make mistakes.
Bringing it back to "stockpiling", I think that means a team needs to be judicious. It can't be piling guys up, it needs to be thinking ahead. When a team sees it's got a middling player who's going to be expensive (more expensive than he's likely worth), it should try to move him while it can. Nocioni would be the example of this situation. If a team is interested in overpaying for them, get a protected pick from them, if that's all you can get, and move on. You've already got a less expensive guy flowing into your system, Thabo, to replace him.
That's what you want to do with middling guys... keep the flow moving and keep your supporting cast inexpensive.
We need to hang onto this pick because time is already running out on Thabo he's more than middling. He'll be an RFA in two summers, and if we play our cards right we'll have cap room then. Unless he's really worth it, we'd be much better of with a guy like Douglas-Roberts or Budinger for less than $2M than we would with Thabo for two or three times that.
Or alternatively, we might be better with Thabo at $6M and a rookie contract at $2M than with Tyrus, Deng or Gordon at $8M or $9M.
Any way you cut it, having young and cheap middling players on rookie deals seems the only alternative to managing the cap and keeping your supporting players cheap.
Also, it probably goes without saying, but I'm not saying that's the only thing a team needs to do. Ultimately it just has to be right in evaluating talent. Simply not paying $15M/yr contracts to old, fading stars goes a long way. But still, the draft seems like a good deal. It's really the only way NBA teams get a shot at cheap talent.
by Sports2 on
Apr 18, 2008 9:36 AM CDT
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Any way you look at it,
Every player in the NBA is an athletic genius. In IQ terms, a "genius" (at least, one who will be accepted as such by Mensa) is a person with an IQ in the top 2% of the population. That's two out of a hundred. Think of how many players around the world play basketball--how many of those actually get to the NBA? I have no idea what that number is, but lets say it's conservatively 1 out of 1,000. Maybe it's 1 out of 10,000, or even more; I don't know.
What's clear is that right off the bat you're already dealing with people who are at the far edge of genius. Now consider the few people from among that group whose talent is so exceptional they stand out from the crowd...and now realize that in order to win, you need to have at least one of these rarest of rare athletes on your team.
And you need to pluck that talent from the draft--while the player is likely far from fully developed...because if you don't get it in the draft, barring the unlikeliest of circumstances, you won't be getting it, period.
So, Sports, I agree with you--and someone else here who recently contributed a great analysis of trading vs. making the pick--the draft is where it at. Almost without exception, if you fail to identify the exceptional talent in the draft, you are doomed.
by alec on
Apr 18, 2008 10:33 AM CDT
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Yeah, I don't think we disagree much
Replacing an expensive middling guys with a cheap middling guy lets you tread water and keep the possibility of something better better (be it a draft pick steal, a firesale trade or a free agent bonanza in 2010) alive. You're doomed to have a low chance for adding exceptional talent, but at least there are possibilities by which you can do it.
Signing the wrong guys to cap killing contracts forecloses even those slim odds because it leads to making decisions on finances with talented players on the line. For example, we can't get rid of Brian Cardinal so we'll have to get rid of Pau Gasol. We can't get rid of Jalen Rose unless we give them Donyell Marshall. We can't take on Gasol's salary because we he'll put us over the tax (because we re-signed Nocioni). Etc etc.
by Sports2 on
Apr 18, 2008 10:48 AM CDT
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yes
by armstrong2389 on Apr 12, 2008 8:31 PM CDT 0 recs
It would be funny
by NBA Observer on Apr 14, 2008 8:56 AM CDT 0 recs
Derrick Rose signs with Arm Tellem
oh wait, there's a draft that determines which team they go to? crud.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Apr 14, 2008 10:18 AM CDT 0 recs
Lucky for us
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 10:44 AM CDT
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Deandre Jordan has the highest upside of anyone in
I think the Randolph kid is good trade bait, for us similar to what Wright was for Charlotte to get Richardson. You know I think we should take him as trade bait if we can't get Jordan.
by armstrong2389 on Apr 14, 2008 11:33 AM CDT 0 recs
Really? OK.
What makes you think he has the biggest upside other than Rose/Beasley?
Now that were basically looking a ninth or better in the draft Jordan falls into my "please don't draft this guy" class.
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 12:52 PM CDT
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The definition of upside
Plus, if we just keep drafting young bigs with upside, wouldn't that just make us the next Seattle Supersonics? I mean, are you suggesting that a surefire superstar should be waiting for us at #2 overall in 2009 or 2010?
by bullhockey on
Apr 14, 2008 4:01 PM CDT
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Maybe!
by California Al on
Apr 15, 2008 5:08 AM CDT
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If he has any upside
by California Al on
Apr 15, 2008 4:53 AM CDT
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Off topic but how tall do you guys think tyrus is
by armstrong2389 on Apr 14, 2008 11:37 AM CDT 0 recs
They do a lot of measuring
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/?year=All&sort2=ASC&draft=0&sort=
by alec on
Apr 14, 2008 11:46 AM CDT
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Tyrus has grown since then likely.
by armstrong2389 on Apr 14, 2008 11:50 AM CDT 0 recs
Best player three years from now in this draft
by armstrong2389 on Apr 14, 2008 6:05 PM CDT 0 recs
Convince us
by NBA Observer on
Apr 14, 2008 6:19 PM CDT
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right after he learns how to 'reply to this'
by your friendly BullsBlogger on
Apr 14, 2008 6:42 PM CDT
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