Putting this Year's Team in Context

by Scotter on Dec 29, 2008 3:11 PM CST Comment 51 comments

I thought I'd take a look at how this year's team compares to the Bulls teams over the last few years in the Four Factors categories. If your not familiar with the Four Factors, this is a way to break basketball down into it's four basic statistical categories (Field goal shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throw shooting). Field goal shooting is the most important category (50%), followed by turnovers (25%), then rebounding (20%), and then free throw shooting (15%).

		Offense
Year	Ortg	eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FTM/FTA
(08/09)	105.4(19)	.483(21)	.139(19)	.278(9)	.225(21)
(07/08)	103.9(26)	.470(28)	.134(16)	.289(8)	.223(19)
(06/07)	104.9(22)	.493(17)	.147(23)	.286(9)	.229(22)
(05/06)	104.0(24)	.487(19)	.139(21)	.263(19)	.216(26)
(04/05)	101.4(27)	.471(24)	.155(30)	.284(18)	.233(22)

		Defense
Year	DRtg	eFG%	TOV%	DRB%	FTM/FTA
(08/09)	108.4(19)	.488(15)	.132(20)	.705(29)	.250(21)
(07/08)	107.2(14)	.496(11)	.142(5)	.731(18)	.258(25)
(06/07)	99.6(1)	.473(3)	.162(1)	.743(10)	.252(19)
(05/06)	103.4(7)	.464(3)	.139(11)	.747(5)	.295(29)
(04/05)	101.4(2)	.454(2)	.144(8)	.726(7)	.262(22)

Offensively not much has really changed from the Skiles era. There's more offensive potential on the roster than the Skiles era, but very little of it has been realized so far. Defense is where the changes have happened. The team has slid in the three most important categories on the side of the ball they could not afford to slide. And a big part of the problem in all three areas is the lineups that Vinny has relied on.

Field goal shooting defense has continued it's slide from last season. What's interesting is last season, the team struggled defending the 3-point line allowing opponents to shoot 37.5% (26th). This season the Bulls are only allowing 33.4% from 3 (6th), but they can't defend the paint

This team also no longer creates turnovers on defense. This is largely a product of the lineups Vinny plays and changes in roster makeup, but it is also may be partly a product of Vinny's system. D'Antoni's defensive system never emphasized creating turnovers in Phoenix.

The most inexcusable lapse for this team is defensive rebounding. 29th in the league is simply unacceptable. Especially when there are players that can rebound on the roster. All of the small forward's rebounding numbers are down as well. Is Vinny having them leak out or are they all under performing?

I'm completely sick of small ball. Sick of seeing Gray out there with Nocioni or Gooden at PF. Sick of seeing the players that can force turnovers, challenge shots, and rebound on the bench.

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Vinny's sytem + inbalanced roster

=Small ball hell.

We should have seen this coming after the trade last season that sent two veteran big men who could defend and rebound away for one numbskull big man who can rebound but not defend…rather than adding another big body through trades or free agency this Summer, the Bulls entered the season with Gooden as their only veteran big man on the roster…so now, two months into the season, Gooden is injured again and the weakness/inadequacies of Noah and Gray are being exposed. Vinny is trotting out the lineups, but the GM is giving him the personnel.

" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem

is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger

by Dionysus2.0 on Dec 29, 2008 3:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ben Wallace couldn't do either

and Joe Smith couldn’t really rebound

I don’t think Noah is a lost cause, and Vinny should play him even if it’s infuriating.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 29, 2008 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I beg to differ, Joe Smith offered an intensity and a mid-range jumper to go with his decent rebounding. He’d be a way more acceptable alternative to Noc at the 4, and would allow us to prevent extended time with Noc anywhere but the 3.

Nocioni is not a 4, and not a decent rebounding 3 either. So someone like Joe Smith, who would actually contribute offensively and grab a few more rebounds a night, would end up helping us a lot more.

"..what you mean? I'm a legend like Kareem!"

by CommittedToExcellence on Dec 30, 2008 6:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well he is better than Noc

sure.

Problem was Skiles insisted (as to all coaches, apparently) on playing Noc a lot, so it was Smith then Noc then maybe Tyrus if he was a nice boy that day.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 30, 2008 9:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

So, the 7.0 rebounds per game Ben Wallace is averaging this season is your idea of “couldn’t do either”?

Sour grapes…
I was not and am not a big Wallace supporter, however, bashing him now sounds pretty cheesey.

Besides the 7 boards a game, do you think Wallace would have allowed that dunk at the end of the Miami game, that was a rub-it-in-your-face dunk, that Aaron Gray stood there watching.

Say what you want, but the Bulls don’t have one player who commands the respect underneath that Wallace does defensively. Also, all of the tips and re-directing of loose balls the guy keeps alive for his team, those don’t show up in a box score.

The Bulls have SERIOUS problems at forward/center. To sit here and slam Wallace, who IS averaging 7 rebounds per game and is on the team with the second best record, well, do the math….

Rather than live in the past, why not deal with the players on the Bulls current roster who are not getting it done. Ben Wallace is basically doing his job in Cleveland. Ain’t always pretty to look at it, but, SCOREBOARD…..

by rtblues on Dec 31, 2008 5:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wallace was beyond trash last year

so good on him that he got his FG% back over 40% in Cleveland. I don’t miss him at all.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 31, 2008 11:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Amen!

And besides, for what The Corpse brings offensively and what he’s paid he needs to average 10.0+ RPG not 7.0.

"I'm very important. I have many leather-bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany." - Ron Burgundy

by mdmnd9294 on Dec 31, 2008 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

10 is a round number!

by hscs on Jan 1, 2009 8:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus

I really think Hinrich would have been gone by Dec 5th or whenever the free agent trade signing period ended had he not gone down….

by majoyenrac on Dec 30, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way...

Has anyone noticed that Thomas and Noah have passed Gray in PER? Or that they’ve both nearly passed him in APM?

I will say I don’t think Gray is the problem for rebounding (none of those guys above are). It’s having Nocioni play PF, Hughes play SF, and neither Gordon nor Rose being able to rebound or steal.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Dec 29, 2008 4:02 PM CST reply actions 2 recs

I find this post interested and its amazing how much our defense has dropped, but I do have one big question. Why is opponent FT% taken into account?

by blademan88 on Dec 29, 2008 4:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

It should be FTM/FGA.

free throws made for every field goal attempted

so percentage is indirectly part of it, but it’s more about how much a team has to foul to keep the other team from scoring

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Dec 29, 2008 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks. I was a little loose with the description.

by Scotter on Dec 29, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a statistic guy

But I bet that, with Tyrus on the court, our defensive numbers are better than with all the others “bigs”. Can someone confirm that? Because, it seems to me tha he’s the only one that can block shots and fight for the ball. Gray just stands and wait that the ball fall into his lap… Noah shows a lot of energy, but besides that, don’t do nothing… And Gooden, well, can score, but can’t defend…

http://comunidadebulleana.blogspot.com/ - Comunidade Bulleana (O blog dos Bulls em Portugal)

by bull83 on Dec 29, 2008 5:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Opponent points per 100 possessions when on the floor:

Noah: 106.7
Tyrus: 106.8
Gooden: 110.0
Gray: 112.4

It’s not pretty with any of them.

by YaoPau on Dec 29, 2008 5:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

105-106 is generally league average.

Where did you get those numbers? I see something different…….

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Dec 29, 2008 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think those are 82games numbers

by Scotter on Dec 29, 2008 5:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

TT and Noah are SIGNIFICANTLY better than Goo_en and Gray on defense.

So of course, the better defensive guys with potential sit while the older maxed out guy and career backup play.

WHY VDN, WHY???

by Granny Waiters on Dec 29, 2008 7:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the

rew Gooen comments…..it’s funny too because _rew was the first to pull a “we have to play defense and I can teach them defense card”.

by majoyenrac on Dec 30, 2008 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Drew actually

will likely get a similar contract of $6-8M for 3/4 years I’d think this offseason. He could be a nice piece if we had a say Chandler esque defender to pair with him at the 5….

by majoyenrac on Dec 30, 2008 1:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

There I go

Mentioning the unmentionable…..

Man I was pissed when it happened (Chandler trade) and I’m still pissed today. Tyson wasn’t and isn’t great, but he’s the piece we’re missing.

by majoyenrac on Dec 30, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Come on, majoyenrac

You can’t call him rew gooen in a post and then respond to yourself about him being a good piece to keep a minute later :-). I don’t want them to keep one player that smacks of mediocrity. I cannot see Drew contributing to a championship, but I can see him preventing one. Imagine, if you will, everything going hysterically right for us over the next 2 years, and there we are facing Portland in the finals. And now picture Drew and his amazing disappearing act in 3-4 of those games. I see him as no better than 7th or 8th man on a winning team; kind of a Scott Williams value at $1-2m, but not a mid-level starter salary.

by California Al on Dec 30, 2008 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Drew's

Not a bad player, just a bad piece for our team. I’ve been saying that forever, he’s still _rew _ooden, but if we had a DEFENDER like Chandler (We don’t) Drew could work for our club as a better than avg offensive PF.

by majoyenrac on Dec 30, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

…mediocre-average players are needed to fill roster spots and be role players on championship teams, but not until you get your superstars in place.

Viva la nuance! Reading comprehension rules!!!

by tyger1147 on Dec 30, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

California Al

maybe very true, but this is 10-12 years later so a $2 mil, Scott Williams is a $6-8m Drew Gooden

man up!

by exult463 on Dec 30, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking current $

with no reference to what Scottie might have been earning. Besides, I like him a hell of a lot better.

by California Al on Dec 30, 2008 10:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh...

Like when rew Gooen was in the finals with the Cavs.

" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem

is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger

by Dionysus2.0 on Dec 30, 2008 5:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder when he was a captain too!

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 30, 2008 11:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ugh

*if he was a captain. You know what I mean. I mean Lebron James.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 30, 2008 11:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand what you are saying here...

Drew Gooden was what, the third or fourth best player on that Cavs finals team or was he 7th or 8th best man on that team…? We all know Lebron was their best player…

Either way, I don’t think Gooden cost them title in that series as CalAl implies nor do I think he was the 7th or 8th best player on that team…While I am not a fan of him on this team, he has played a role on other successful teams in the past.

" I've looked at these numbers and decided the #1 problem

is that Ben Gordon is selfish..." -your friendly bulls blogger

by Dionysus2.0 on Jan 1, 2009 11:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

LeBron makes any team construction a special case

I think if Gooden’s starting for you you’re likely in trouble. Unless it’s like starting in the Aaron Gray mold, where you start because…why not?

That Cavs team still sort of fits that mold because he was the 3rd most valuable big man behind Z and Varejao. It was just that the guards were so terrible that Gooden was the 4th-5th best player.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jan 2, 2009 9:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It wasn't a statistical analysis of the 2006-7 finals

Just seat of the pants observation. Before he came here, I briefly felt like he was a very good PF @ Clev, and then all of a sudden I’d see a game that made me wonder what I’d been thinking. Since he’s arrived, he’s reinforced an impression of a very talented player who just doesn’t show up all too often. His PER both reg season and playoffs are similar and declining, though I’d expect an uptick during a contract year.
Jerry West drafted him and traded him after 21 games, not a strong resume bulletpoint. Cleveland traded him for Ben Wallace mid-season during their attempted repeat as ECC. He’s not that important to argue about. My point is that payroll is our rarest commodity, and I don’t want it spent on Drew, particularly if his signing prevents signing BG, for example. The Lakers, eg, had to let Turiaf walk over a $4m offer, and replaced him with Josh Powell for $800k. Net difference to the team? Zero, except maybe the towel waving.
The real core of my belief is that I won’t be very fond of any changes that are supposed incremental improvements. That’s how you linger in lotto-8th seed limbo. Something dramatic is needed, and resigning Drew is not what I had in mind.

by California Al on Jan 2, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I am fine with mediocre players at minimum salary,

e.g. Aaron Gray. After all, roster spots 11-14 need to be filled.

by Granny Waiters on Dec 30, 2008 9:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder though

Post the Tyrus funk, how it’s changed…..compare Tyrus’s rate of 3 weeks ago to the past 3 weeks?

by majoyenrac on Dec 30, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm gonna repeat what I said in the NJ game thread

I have lost a lot of respect for Del and Bernie. How can they sit on the same bench without decking VDN for making the same bone headed mistakes every day?

by Alighieri on Dec 29, 2008 9:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

biding their time to ascend to the HC chair?

by fundamentallysound on Dec 29, 2008 11:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

they've been pretty nonexistent

it’s also possible that this is viewed as a cushy gig. They’re both old as hell, and don’t need the stress of a real job with an organization that demands results :)

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 30, 2008 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe, why the defense isn't...

first, a speedy look back
Core of Skiles, Hinrich, Deng, Gordon etc. work hard on defense always — playoff-level basketball for most of the regular season, wears players out mentally and physically, need player(s) to make things easier so, they take a risk on Ben Wallace, I think because you can’t sustain level of Skiles-ball after more than 2-3 years. I had hoped for 2 good years of BW…too bad. Ugly situation last year, player burnout adding to problems? Have to admit, glad guys moved in trade.

onto this year…

wow Derrick Rose… even better than expected! (We are fortunate!). Now what? We have a tantalizing amount of statistics and information available to us as fans, but we don’t know what the Bulls are planning. Surely they have several plans/options in front of them… I’m guessing based on what I’ve seen to this point —

Develop Derrick Rose. Yes, they are. He is getting mega-minutes maybe not wearing out by not playing much defense? I have heard that defense has to be played as a team, and this group is hardly a cohesive unit to this point and likely (hopefully) to be changing soon?? So it’s an offensive showcase. They have won more games than I thought they would.

They must be trying to show Gooden to the league. A team with real hopes of advancing in the playoffs may want him and he has that expiring contract. What can we get? Are we showcasing other guys? That may explain why some of the lineups are {ahem} unorthodox, and/or unwatchable. At this point, who shouldn’t the Bulls be willing to trade? (I do not mean Kobe for Aaron Gray, btw).

On an inquisitive note: Does PER have quality of opponent’s players on court as a factor? (do I get my stats versus Wade or Waiters?)

The NBA needs a cooler name for it's championship. Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, World Series... NBA Finals. bleh.

by Buso be Hacu on Dec 30, 2008 1:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Noah and Gray are only in there second year and i think with rose in the mix those two will only get better but i would like to see the bulls make a moe to get a better big man and drew gooden is to inconsistent his defense is suspect and his offense is not where it should be he needs to be more aggressive driving to the hole and being that low post threat.

by Hitman8425 on Dec 30, 2008 10:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Why not

Just keep playing 22 yr old Tyrus? He’s the better big man. We need a defender to pair with him at the 5 and it seems Noah either will never be that guy or is farther off than we ever thought.

by majoyenrac on Dec 30, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

For some reason, TT is always in the coach's doghouse.

If I were the Bulls coach, I would play my GM’s high first round draft pick a lot more.

by Granny Waiters on Dec 30, 2008 9:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ideally I'd love to be able to

split Ty and Noah at the 4 exclusively, they get all the minutes at the 4, Ty gets a few at the 3, Noah gets a few at the 5, but this implies that Gooden is moved for a good 5 (one with competent, consistent offensive capability and production) in a package that excludes both Ty and Noah.

And ideally I’d like to get Kaman if the price makes sense but that means no Ty and no Noah involved. Kaman makes sense playing with these guys, not as much without them.

by messwiththebull on Dec 30, 2008 9:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also implies that

Ty and Noah don’t start together but this does not mean they don’t play on the court at the same time.

by messwiththebull on Dec 30, 2008 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

instead of blaming VDN, how about the roster?

it is obvious the difference is that before we had PJ Brown, Chandler, Smith and Wallace as our bigs and Kirk on the perimeter. All 5 guys are noted defensive players and rebounders (except Smith who is decent and Kirk who is a pg). You add in Eddy Curry big body and Noce moving at the speed of a young dude and you have a much better defensive rotation.

You replace those guys with Gray, Gooden, Tyrus and Noah and you have a big drop off. Obviously small ball contributes. But Tyrus and Noah aren’t great defenders yet, they have great moments but they aren’t consistent. Gray and Gooden are sieves. Are problems are obvious, but I don’t think you can coach Gray and Gooden up and the Bulls are still waiting for Tyrus and Noah to be more consistent? either you make a trade or keep waiting.

by Basketball Smurf on Dec 30, 2008 11:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

sorry about the horrid grammar

but another thing – we also don’t have that much more offensive talent. We have the same perimeter guys plus Rose (which is a big plus) but our big guys are worse offensively. Smith and Brown were better than what we have now, Chandler was better than Noah and Wallace at least had the good sense to not shoot. So I don’t know if this is an indictment on VDN or PAX. The roster has taken a step back and we’ve yet to obtain a do it all post player.

by Basketball Smurf on Dec 30, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Whew, 29th in defensive rebounding?

I’ve been advocating that VDN puts in his sets first and they adjust the personnel to fit later; no need to change everything up again if/when trades are made. Having said that, small ball seems to be inherent for his offensive purposes, but I’d like to see Vinnie make one change: adjust his thinking on when to go big. Right now, it seems we start big and finish small. He should consider flip-flopping that rotation. I’d really like to see a lineup that uses Noah at the 4 and either TT or Thabo at the 3; Gray or Gooden in the post doesn’t seem like much difference defensively. Then, let Rose and Gordon challenge the ball at the perimeter, with the big three forming the “wall” visually when they get beaten.
I’m glad to see that they’re defending the three-ball better. Now if only the penetration forced mid-range jumpers instead of layups. And then go get the damn rebound.

by California Al on Dec 30, 2008 1:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Decisions or Replacements for

Gordon and Gooden are paramount to keep the team on pace of its current growth or decline? Or another trade involving Tyrus, Noc, Hughes, Kirk, Simmons, Deng and/or Noah.

If Paxson doesn’t sign, he needs to get something back via a trade for Gooden..

Paxson will have to actually work, he can’t just do nothing…

man up!

by exult463 on Dec 30, 2008 3:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs