Game Preview #29 - Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

by Big D on Dec 26, 2008 10:37 AM CST Comment 37 comments

[Thanks to Big D for today's preview. Early game! 4pm! -ed.]

Remember when this used to be a big rivalry? Those days seem like a long time ago. Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem are the only players left from the championship team (along with Dorrell Wright, who has played 6 minutes all season). Even Pat Riley has kicked himself upstairs (at least for now . . . we'll see what happens if they keep winning). The names have changed, but this is still a pretty intriguing matchup. The Bulls desperately need a win on the road, and this afternoon might be their best chance to get a win on this road trip (4:00 Central, ESPN/Comcase Sportsnet).

The Heat are no longer a joke, and the reason is Dwyane Wade. By almost any standard, he's been the second best player in the league this season. He's leading the league in scoring, and he's had to because he hasn't had much help. Shawn Marion is having the worst season of his career, and Michael Beasley is now coming off the bench because of his weak defense. Wade has by far the highest Usage Rate in the league, so this team is entirely dependent on him. If he gets hurt, they may not be much better than the 15 win team of last year. If he stays healthy all season, he may be the only player who can take the MVP Award away from Lebron James.

This game is on national TV for two reasons - the Rose vs. Wade matchup, and the Rose vs. Beasley matchup (incidentally, after all the bad Bulls-Heat games on national TV last season I'm surprised ESPN dared to go back to this matchup). The Rose-Wade matchup has gotten plenty of hype and glowing quotes on both sides, but I'm almost as interested in seeing Beasley. To say the least, there was a vigorous debate on this site about whether to pick Rose or Beasley, and so far, those of us who leaned towards Beasley look like absolute fools. He's been a lousy defender, which isn't surprising, but he's also been a terrible rebounder. He's ranks 56th out of 69 power forwards in Rebound Rate (even below Matt's favorite whipping boy, LaMarcus Aldridge). He's also shown no signs of being the low-post scorer the Bulls would have needed. I still think he's going to be a very good player, but he may be more of a 3 than a 4.

Blogging With the Enemy:

Ira Winderman

Peninsula is Mightier

Considering that the Bulls have two more games on the road trip after this one, they might want to win today if they want to stay anywhere near .500. The bottom of the East is better this year, and it's hard to see a 35-win team making the playoffs this year. This is a winnable game, since the Heat are basically a mediocre team being carried by one incredible player. Then again, the Bulls have blown so many winnable games on the road this season that I'm not getting my hopes up.

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Good preview - What is Usage Rate?

I couldn’t find an explanation on the link. After watching the Lakers-Celtics game I think we should be in another, minor league. I did catch some Gasol/KG envy. I agree about the importance of tonight’s game. We quickly can fall further to the bottom of the East if we lose all thee games. Do you know why this game is at 4PM? I think it was originally scheduled for 7PM.

by chgobr on Dec 26, 2008 11:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

could be a tv schedule thing?

after it is some bowl game. they often change the game times to accommodate whatever station is putting them on.

by Jaina on Dec 26, 2008 11:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Usage Rate

Usg Usage Rate is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)

Why resort to name calling?
-Dionysus2.0

because I wish to insult you personally
-your friendly BullsBlogger

by Big D on Dec 26, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

While I certainly agree that D-Wade has been a beast this year

I think that Hollinger’s PER formula somewhat/slightly overstates the value of being a high-usage player. Not saying that it doesn’t have any value – it certainly has some – just that he’s somewhat/slightly overvaluing it. So Wade’s PER slightly misrepresents his actual value due to the effect of the uber-high usage rate.

But … yeah. Otherwise, great preview. Go Bulls.

"You ain’t as hot as I is / all of these false prophets is not messiahs /
You don’t know how high the sky is / the square mileage of earth or what pi is." - Nas

by Jivas on Dec 26, 2008 11:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't part of being a great player being able to be used a lot?

I think how much you are used should be a factor. If wade was doing the same thing but was only able to be used half as much he wouldn’t be as valuable. Now I understand part of this is because his teammates aren’t great, and if he was on a more talented team he wouldn’t be used as much, but I still thing you should get credit for being such a big part of things. Lebron, Parker, and Kobe are all next on the list, so it seems like its what stars do.

by BoxingHideout on Dec 26, 2008 1:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to be kind with my response

But it’s going to be hard. Please re-read what I said – I never, EVER, EVER said that it shouldn’t be a factor. I merely suggested that Hollinger’s formula “somewhat/slightly” overvalues usage.

Next time I’ll try drawing a picture.

"You ain’t as hot as I is / all of these false prophets is not messiahs /
You don’t know how high the sky is / the square mileage of earth or what pi is." - Nas

by Jivas on Dec 26, 2008 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dorell Wright has played 6 minutes all season, huh?

Maybe going pro intead of going to DePaul was a bad idea? Doofus…

(Yes, I’m still bitter).

"You ain’t as hot as I is / all of these false prophets is not messiahs /
You don’t know how high the sky is / the square mileage of earth or what pi is." - Nas

by Jivas on Dec 26, 2008 11:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

could he have done THIS at DePaul?

2004-05 Miami Heat NBA $1,152,240
2005-06 Miami Heat NBA $1,238,640
2006-07 Miami Heat NBA $1,325,160
2007-08 Miami Heat NBA $2,040,746

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wrighdo01.html

about $2.9m next season too.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 26, 2008 12:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably not

He’d have had to play for Kelvin Sampson to make that much.

Why resort to name calling?
-Dionysus2.0

because I wish to insult you personally
-your friendly BullsBlogger

by Big D on Dec 26, 2008 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

What about ?

by reprisal on Dec 26, 2008 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn you guys

I don’t like either of you that much right now. :)

"You ain’t as hot as I is / all of these false prophets is not messiahs /
You don’t know how high the sky is / the square mileage of earth or what pi is." - Nas

by Jivas on Dec 26, 2008 12:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Imagine the great defense of a Beasley/Gray frontcourt

You mention their 3 big star attractions, but the 2 players to keep an eye out for are Mario Chalmers and Daquean Cook. Chalmers is going to be one of those uber-solid PGs for a long time, good defense, nice decision making, decent shot, and the pressure is off him late in games because Wade will control the ball most of the times anyways. I want to see Rose going right at Chalmers, forcing Wade and Mario to constantly switch off, freeing Gordon up more. Cook is a great outside shooter, who if the Bulls continue to play shitty defense, will get easy open looks once Wade gets into the paint (and he will….a lot).

The ideal goal is to just make Wade shoot 20 foot shots all game long, but we all know with this D that’s going to be a difficult task. Offensively…..just do anything besides standing around waiting for Rose or Gordon to make a shot. After watching some of the games yesterday and now being subjected to Bulls basketball I may punch myself in the face.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Dec 26, 2008 11:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah man.

Yesterday had some awesome basketball. This Bulls team is, like, 3 echelons lower than teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, etc.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Dec 26, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Spurs, Suns...

agreed. It was like watching a different sport.

USE THE SOFTWARE. Actions-> Rec/Flag. Reply to comments with the reply button. Rec good fanposts/fanshots so the crud gets pushed down.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 26, 2008 2:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly

theres like maybe 10 teams that are capable of playing near that level. The other 20 pretty much all suck to various degrees.

by reprisal on Dec 26, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Great Summary

In all fairness, if Beasley is really a 3 instead of a 4, then his rebounding and other stats should be compared against SF. In this is the case,then his current numbers are about equal to Deng’s while also playing 8 minutes less.

It would have been great if Paxs could have got both Rose and Beasley by somehow trading Deng to the Heat!

man up!

by exult463 on Dec 26, 2008 11:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

Seeing how poor Beasley’s rebounding has been this year – from a guy who averaged like 12 rpg in college last year – I figured that maybe he was playing a disproportionate number minutes at SF. Not so, says 82games.com.

Still, there might be a positional effect here, where he and Marion “trade” positions on certain possessions, either formally (within the offense or defensive sets) or informally (Marion just does the dirty work as he is wont to do). I absolutely have to believe that Beasley’s rebound rate in his prime years will be better than it is now – barring a full-time move to SF – but the evidence thusfar indicates that, even given this improvement, it probably won’t be an asset.

"You ain’t as hot as I is / all of these false prophets is not messiahs /
You don’t know how high the sky is / the square mileage of earth or what pi is." - Nas

by Jivas on Dec 26, 2008 12:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

more similiar to outside BIGS (Nowitzki, Okur) whose first year rebounding average seem similar to Beasley. Yet while both are taller, they seem to eclipse right arounf 8 to 9 rbg. I believe Beasley, after gaining more strength, experience, playing time increase and minus Marion will probably also see his current rate nearly double.

This types don’t need to clog the lane to score for slashers like Rose..

man up!

by exult463 on Dec 26, 2008 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We would have wanted to shoot ourselves and paxson if we took Beasley over Rose

We would have joined the Timberwolve fans grief . It is going to take awhile for the Wolves to get Roy for Foye out of their minds.

by chgobr on Dec 26, 2008 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

just in time for them to focus on Love for Mayo

but I don’t think the difference between Beasley and Rose will be that drastic as the ones already mentioned in the long run.
A lot of Beasley’s rebounds came off of his own shots in college. He didn’t come into the NBA ready to play off of the ball, but when you play with Dwayne Wade, that’s exactly what you do.

I think he’ll adjust and be just fine.

by darksmokepuncher on Dec 26, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Players who can play effectively more than one position...

I think most every great team has at a least one “great” two or three way player.

I think Wade (Brandon Roy and Manu Ginobili, also) are really a two position player and can play both the pg and sg positions, and maybe some sf.

But, certain players are great 3 position and 4+ position players. Jordan, Pip, Kobe, Garnett are/were great 3 position players types.

Magic Johnson and LBJ are/were great 4+ position players.

man up!

by exult463 on Dec 26, 2008 12:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Did anyone watch the Mavs-Blazers game last night?

I did not, but I just looked through the boxscore and the rebounding numbers are one of the most unusual things I’ve seen. I’m looking at rebound numbers – I saw that LMA had only 3 in 25 minutes (par for the course), but that Greg Oden had only 5 in 25 minutes. Well then – who the hell was getting rebounds in this game, in which Dallas outrebounded Portland 42-32.

The leading rebounder in the game was Jason Kidd with 12; okay, that’s somewhat normal for the triple-double king of the day (who missed a trip-doub by 4 points). So who had the second most rebounds in the game?

Jose Juan Barea. Unconvincingly listed at 6’0" – from watching him play I’d guess 5’7" – he had 8 boards in 22 minutes.

What the hell happened in this game?

"You ain’t as hot as I is / all of these false prophets is not messiahs /
You don’t know how high the sky is / the square mileage of earth or what pi is." - Nas

by Jivas on Dec 26, 2008 2:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

not much happened

Its basically the same as when what happens when any other team plays the bulls. Random people have big nights especially on the boards because all they do is shoot jumpers and run back assuming its going in.

by sin on Dec 26, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lots of jumpers means more long rebounds, guards are in better position

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Dec 26, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Peninsula is Mightier blog

I wonder is the Peninsula is Mightier blog is really serious. First they wrote that M. Beasley might be like Duncan and and that Chicago has four strong forwards.

I can’t begin to imagine what Michael could grow to be. Something along the lines of Tim Duncan but hitting 3’s. (If you have a better one please let me know)

Chicago has a very strong ‘forward four’ in Thomas, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden.

by Fastbreak on Dec 26, 2008 2:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs