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Pre-Circus Musings

Some thoughts about last night's game and the first 12% of the season in general:

1) Wow. Derrick Rose.

Star-divide

2) Larry Hughes is still a chucker. I know he settled down as the game progressed, but that doesn't excuse his bricks early on. We really are stuck with him until June 2010, aren't we?  And what's with the Under Armor, Larry?

3) When Noc plays like he did last night, you see why get got the contract he did.  He seems to be the only one that realizes how Rose transforms this team/game, and how that means he needs to both defer to #1 and step up his game at the same time. I really like Noc along side Derrick.

4) Glad to see Deng get to the line 10 times in the first half - a sign that he's attacking the rim rather than plodding 20 feet out.  Now if those kind of free throws could come in the second half as well...

5) VDN has got to figure out Rose's minutes.  Rose went over 40 again last night, and it was a weird 40+.  I understand that he needed to rest to start the 4th quarter, but I'm sure I'm not the only one who felt like the game almost slipped away because Vinny waited one clock stoppage too many before putting Rose back out there.

6) It seems that VDN has inhereited Skiles's doghouse. I know that Tyrus wasn't playing anywhere close to Youtube quality, but 5 minutes?!? Either there is something going on we don't know about, or we're screwed worse than we know with VDN.

7) Have I mentioned Rose lately?

8) We have got to trade Gooden.  Not due to his performance, but rather because his value is not going to get any higher than it is right now.  Also, I used to think we could survive with him playing center, but last night changed that.  When you make Murphy and Nesterovic look like a formidable front-court, then something needs to change.  By trading Gooden, we remove VDN's temptation to play him as the man in the middle.

9) If he plans on playing high (no pun intended), Noah needs to learn how to set a pick.  I can't count how many times he came to the top of the key and did nothing more than his happy dance in an attempt to set Rose free from his defender..

10) Would someone remind Ben that we have Derrick Rose.  This means that Gordon no longer needs to drive into triple coverage and get rejected while slipping on the marbles someone put under his feet.

11) A Cedric Simmons sighting!

12) We still have too many guards; someone's got to go. I thought the three guard lineup went the way of the dodo when Skiles and "he who shall not be named" split town.  Can you imagine how much it would get used if Rose, Gordon, Hughes, and Hinrich were all healthy at the same time? By sticking to just two guards on the floor at any given time, we would solve many of our ills:

 A- Better managing Rose's minutes
 B- Keeping Larry Hughes's minutes down
 C- Keeping Noc away from the 4, which
 D- Keeps Gooden away from the 5.

Any one of these is good enough reason, let alone all of them combined.

13) Like I mentioned above, I like Noc on a D. Rose team, I just don't like Noc at the 4.  Against a plodding team like Indiana, we can get away with it.  But against any front-court that is considered athletic, we are going to get killed playing that kind of small. Success against Indiana does not a good strategy make.

.
.
.

23) Derrick effin Rose

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This whole Larry Hughes hate...

on this board is getting a tad bit silly. Is he a great player…no, of course not. But as a guy coming off the beanch to spell Gordon or Rose….it’s not really that big of a damn deal. The contract is what it is….we’re stuck with it. Get over it and move on.

by Ayeljay54 on Nov 16, 2008 12:19 PM CST reply actions   2 recs

You do realize

Larry hasn’t shot over 40% since the 2005-2006 season
Larry hasn’t shot over 43% since the 2002-2003 season.
Since he’s been a Bull he’s shot 38.7% (last year) & 37.5% (this year)
He’s chucked up 11.5 shots a game last year in 29 minutes and 8 shots a game this year in 17.5 minutes
The hate for Hughes is justified because Hughes role has never been to just sit on the bench and rest people, he’s always played a lot of minuted and he shouldn’t.
He’s Awful

by Jamaicanpi on Nov 16, 2008 2:20 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

On Gooden, Your Spot on

I couldn’t agree more about Gooden. First, he is absolutely is not a center. Secondly, VDN starts Noah, but has Noah guard the power forward, and Gooden play center on defense. Wrong, this makes me worry a lot about VDN.

Gooden has no long term future with the Bulls, we will not sign him to a multi year contract after this season. So even if he is our “best big” that isn’t saying much, and he is just taking time away from the development of our young bigs. Since Thomas is clearly not the answer as a starting 4 I could live with Gooden starting at the 4. But since Bonehead 2 (VDN) insists on playing him at center he should be traded as soon as possible to take away this option.

Noah and Gray should play every minute in the post until we acquire someone better. However, power forward and starting 2 guard are bigger priorities than the center position, and easier to find.

Gooden and Hughes for anyone with a contract that ends by the summer of 2010.

by BigWay on Nov 16, 2008 3:12 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think with the way BG has played this year

There really shouldn’t be a need for a starting 2.

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Nov 16, 2008 4:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Man

You guys are watching a very different set of games than I am. I certainly agree that Gooden is no star, but he’s a quality starter up front, and at this point he’s the only one we’ve got.

I still hold out a fair amount of hope for Noah, and I don’t see much downside to hoping against hope for Tyrus. Gray I’m ok with too. He’s been relatively ok.

But… this season would be a trainwreck without Gooden. The other guys are not ready and I suspect that 2 of the 3 probably never will be. Gooden is a solid upper middle class NBA big man. If we could extend him for about the same salary, I’d be perfectly happy to do so. In the longer run, the goal of this team should be to maintain what it’s got and open up a spot for a free agent star.

Going into Summer 2010, what I want to see at this point is a roster of
1- Rose
2- Gordon
3- Deng
4- Gooden
5- Noah
Bench – 09 1st rounder, 10 1st rounder
RFAs- Thabo, Tyrus
Cap Space – Enough to sign a max player:

That is a perfectly feasible plan. It can be done. It should be done. Will Paxson do it? I doubt it.

De gustibus non est disputandum

by Sports2 on Nov 16, 2008 6:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gooden an upper middle class NBA big man?

Why do you want to keep those four players around Rose? Why do you want to keep draft picks on team loaded with young talent that we cannot find the time on the court to develop?

Besides, most people (around here) don’t think Kirk or Nocioni should be traded for a salary dump, does Paxson?

"The whole leverage thing, it's a difficult thing to gauge" -Paxson

by Dionysus2.0 on Nov 16, 2008 7:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh

1. Yes. In the grand scheme of things he’s well above average and just entering his prime.
2. I want to keep those four players around Rose (plus create cap space for a star) because they are or will be above average NBA players who play the right positions and compliment his game. Noah is a bit of a stretch but I project him to round into a more consistent version of himself and he’ll still be on his rookie deal in 2010. So it comes together fairly well. And when and if we get that start FA in 2010, we’ve got a nice 6 man core of really good players, plus two 1st round picks on rookie deals to fill out the rotation.
3. I want to keep draft picks because we’ll need talented players on cheaper contracts to fill out our bench. And second, the “young talent” we have now will not be “young talent” in 2010. For that matter, it’s not really even young talent we’re struggling to play now. If we trade away some combo of Noc, Hinrich, or Hughes for one player on a shorter deal, then the minutes will appear.
4. I already voiced my doubts about what Paxson will do. I simply stated what should be done. For that matter, however, I’d prefer more than just a salary dump thought. If we could trade Noc + Hinrich for Miller (for example) to give ourselves one more competent big with the right length of contract and a bit more breathing room to sign up Gooden and Gordon, I’d be perfectly happy with that.

So this year after the trade and next year would be something like
1- Rose
2- Gordon, Hughes
3- Deng, Thabo
4- Gooden, Tyrus
5- Miller, Noah

De gustibus non est disputandum

by Sports2 on Nov 16, 2008 9:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You are entitled to your opinion.

"The whole leverage thing, it's a difficult thing to gauge" -Paxson

by Dionysus2.0 on Nov 16, 2008 10:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

But Gooden is not even close to upper middle class.

He is like the epitome of an average player. With 60 starting big men in the NBA, I would put him around #30…offensively, he is just an average player and defensively he is a borderline liability…there is no way I would want the Bulls to resign him after this season, unless he would accept MLE or less…if you resign for more, then he is being overpaid…

Of the players you are proposing to keep, none of them are really complimenting Rose’s game at this point…but its early and I suppose they could develop chemistry.

We currently do not have enough minutes to develop our own lottery picks, I would not advocate adding more draft picks to a roster that is too deep already, they would be better served trading those picks as sweeteners to these salary dump deals that we would be supposedly making with Noc and Kirk.

Really though, your plan does not work…both Gordon and Gooden would have to accept contracts that are less than the ones they are already on or ones they have turned down for the Bulls to have the $18M necessary under the cap to sign a max player…especially considering a max player’s own team could offer him more than the Bulls…

The Bulls should look to trade their assets for a proven commodities, not some stopgap player like Brad Miller who has a favorable contract…they would be better served adding a long term piece(s) rather than dumping salary…

"The whole leverage thing, it's a difficult thing to gauge" -Paxson

by Dionysus2.0 on Nov 16, 2008 10:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Drew’s better than just 30 out of 60 in terms of big men….and lean more towards saying he’s upper middle PF’s….but the problem is while he’s a solid player, his game is more suited to the outside jump shot than the inside game, so we don’t really get a benefit of having him on our team because we have no C.

If Noah was a scorer inside, we would flourish with Drew as a very good PF…..

That’s not the team we have though, so having Drew jump shoot most of his points makes him play a bit more like a bigger guard on a team stacked with guards….while he’s pretty good (he’ll be VERY GOOD every 2.25 games) his skills don’t fill our need and so he is expendable and should be traded (because his value is high as a good, expiring deal and perhaps we can work him and someone else to get a viable C like Kaman…..who’s on the block.

by majoyenrac on Nov 17, 2008 8:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

An outside scorer is a better fit than an inside scorer for Noah

Noah won’t be very effective with an inside scorer because he’ll be pushed outside. Where his little offense becomes none at all.

Second, the inside scorer will be less effective because Noah won’t provide much spacing to keep the defense honest against him. Suppose we added Eddy Curry or Zach Randolph or some other prototypical post player. If he’s playing next to Noah, would you not automatically tell your team to leave Noah and double the big guy if you’re coaching against that?

De gustibus non est disputandum

by Sports2 on Nov 17, 2008 12:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes he is.

1. You just described why Gooden is upper middle class. He’s middle of the road for a starter, but the NBA is composed of a more than simply starters. So he’s the 30th best big in the league, and the league contains somewhere north of 120 of them, upper middle class seems like a pretty accurate term. Folks like to rag on him, but if they looked closely they’d realize he’s quite a bit less replaceable than people seem to think. Unless, of course, you prefer to see Aaron Gray trundling up the court more than you prefer winning basketball games. I don’t have a tall, chunky man fetish or a he’s oozing with potential he’ll probably never realize fetish. I want guys that will win games for us.

2. What lottery picks are you talking about? Derrick Rose doesn’t seem to have any problems getting minutes. There are plenty of minutes there for the taking up front but our current young players just haven’t played well given ample minutes. More importantly, I categorically reject the idea that we need to be giving them minutes “to develop”. Tyrus and Thabo are the guys who this would seem to apply most to, and their failure to produce so far hardly looks attributable to not having game experience. Game experience might count for something, but it’s not a cure all. And honestly, I don’t see how it cures the flaws in Tyrus’ game, especially. The mistakes he generally makes out there have absolutely nothing to do with experience.

3. Our roster is not “too deep already”. We have maybe 6 starting or better quality NBA players. Rose, Deng, Gordon, Gooden, Hinrich, Noc. We have one, maybe two guys who will become that in Noah and Tyrus. That’s not some raging amount of depth. It especially isn’t when you couple trading away Hinrich and Noc, even if you bring back one player to replace them. If you trade away those picks with Kirk and Noc, then even if you get one player back, you have only 5 good players and two or three prospects. Which sounds fine, except that two of those prospects will quickly be wanting raises and two of those prospects haven’t shown that they’re going to be much more than prospects, let alone deserving of significant raises. The draft picks, on the other hand, aren’t going to be early lottery picks. They’re likely to develop, if at all, into role player types anyway, which is exactly what we need to fill out our roster. So moving in one young player a year, on a reasonable contract, is an absolute necessity.

4. I’ve studies the cap numbers pretty extensively and I don’t see much basis for your belief that there wouldn’t be enough room to sign a max player under the plan I laid out. I worked through the numbers using a Deng-sized contract for Gordon, which is significantly higher than he was willing to settle for with the Bulls. Gooden could make $8M or so on top of that and we’d still likely be fine for signing a max player. Obviously circumstances could change (such as the salary cap declining by a lot) but there’s no way to predict that and more importantly, if that happens, it’s just as likely to negatively affect player salaries as it is the cap (ie, if the cap goes down next year, it’s harder on the Bulls, but it’s harder on everyone else too, so perhaps Gordon can be resigned for $60M instead of $66M, meaning we only pay him $10M instead of, say, $10.5M in 2010). In any case, I’ve worked out the numbers and the numbers work. And if they don’t, you readjust. If you can’t extend Gooden at the right price, you offer the full MLE to Milsap. There are some fallback options.

5. I’m not sure what you mean by “proven commodities”, but the basic idea, I guess, would be to trade Kirk and Noc for some sort of star player. OK, I’m on board with that. Even if you add in some draft picks, however, I find it pretty unlikely you’re really going to get a star for those guys. Certainly we’d be a able to get an AK-47 or Zach Randolph type, but I don’t really see how that helps us. I think I’d rather roll the dice on 2010. And even if we did, we’d still want to execute the other parts of the plan. If we trade for Zach Randoph, we’re closing off the 2010 FA option pretty clearly. So that would only make it more important to keep our draft picks and re-sign our current players. Because if they left, there’d be no replacing them.

De gustibus non est disputandum

by Sports2 on Nov 17, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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