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May 2008 from Brew Hoop - 0 comments

Guess the Player

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Mayo v. Rose

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Reports from Pre-Draft Camp

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You kinda buried the lead.

He has Rudy Fernandez ranked number one. Not to take anything away from Rudy cause he’s been very good, but Rose and Mayo have both been better imo. Especially Mayo, the past couple games the guy has been playing out of his mind and Thorpe has him ranked fourth. If he’s gonna be that dumb about it than why even have the rankings?

by Juiceboxjerry on Nov 11, 2008 2:08 PM CST reply actions  

lol

guilty as charged

"You’re caught up in basketball. Get caught up in life" - Starbury's Head Tattoo

by Belize on Nov 11, 2008 5:06 PM CST up reply actions  

"the Bulls really stress spreading the floor and keeping the post open to keep driving lanes open for Rose. "

That’s a nice way of saying “the bulls have no post player” :)

Thabo Sefolosha: His last name sounds like a disease, and his ballgame IS one.

by chibullsfan03 on Nov 11, 2008 2:22 PM CST reply actions  

Rose is ranked 9th in Rookier PER

another reason I hate that statistic. What does it prove? Are we really suppose to believe that Ryan Anderson has played the best of any rookie thus far, but the Nets are too stupid to play him in all of their games?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?sort=per&qual=true&pos=rookies&seasonType=2&action=login&appRedirect=http3a2f2finsider.espn.go.com2fnba2fhollinger2fstatistics3fsort3dper26qual3dtrue26pos3drookies26seasonType3d2

by DangerMouse on Nov 11, 2008 3:22 PM CST reply actions  

Sample size, sample size, sample size

Every statistic is going to have anomalies this early in the season. If you don’t know how to use statistics, get mad at yourself, not the statistics.

We have every right to dream heroic dreams. Those who say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look.
Ronald Reagan

by snley on Nov 11, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Come on let's just ignore that...

DeAndre Jordan has a PER of 43.9 and Ortg of 204. Those are hall of fame worthy.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordade01.html

"The whole leverage thing, it's a difficult thing to gauge" -Paxson

by Dionysus2.0 on Nov 11, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

i know how to use statistics

but I ask again, what is that stat telling you. It is saying limited time Ryan Anderson has played well on the offensive end. But I can look at his pts per game, rebounding numbers and field goal percentage and come to the same conclusion. I just think its an overrated tool in measuring players.

I mean, do I really need to know Lebron has a per of 32.8 to know he is a good player? Of course the best players have the best PERs, but does that mean its better than win score (Dave Berry) or any of the other new stats introduced into basketball.

I also think the ESPN guys have come to rely on PER too much. Hollinger routinely makes claims that simply don’t pan out because of his projections. PER overrates rebounding, screws up the usage rate, and doesn’t even attempt to account for defense. So a guy like Carl Landry can lead the rookie class in PER the entire year, and if you just looked at that stat, you wouldn’t know he is a below average defender or a part time player. Another PER star includes the loveable and so cuddly Michael Sweetney. PER has a way overrating inside players who can score. But instead of making my case, I’ll leave it to someone who argued it far better than I -

“Without knowing a whole lot more about a player’s statline, just glancing at their PER will often be completely useless. But isn’t the whole point of the number to boil a player’s statistical contributions down to one easy-to-reference number? By consolidating stats into more complex measures, you gain the ability to compare across players, but you lose explanatory power … if given the choice between knowing a player’s field goal percentage or his field goals made and field goals attempted, I’d take the former because it allows for clearer comparisons across players. PER simply takes that kind of thinking to the extreme. What is sacrificed by this metric is rarely worth what is gained.”

http://westcoastbasketball.blogspot.com/2007/09/fraction-of-sum.html

PER as a number alone, tells you almost nothing about a player. When you are evaluating a mid-level player, someone whose PER hovers around average, whether that guy has a PER of 16 or a per of 18 tells you nothing about whether that is a guy you want on your team. Its a tool, yes, but it is a mostly unnecessary tool that hides important details. If I want to know if Gordon will play better with Rose than Hinrich, should I check their PER’s or their shooting percentage? If I want to know who is the better offensive rebounder, Noah or Thomas, should I look at their PER or their offensive rebound rate? Looking at PER says nothing but that is a very good offensive player, that is a good offensive player, and that is a mediocre offensive player. It tells you nothing about what they actually bring the table.

But, please, educate me about statistics, all knowing one.

by DangerMouse on Nov 11, 2008 6:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, I remember that guy parlayed his ignorance into a FreeDarko guest spot

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 11, 2008 7:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Wait, who did?

When I watch NBA games I often call the fouls before the referees do. Sometimes it’s a gift. Most of the time it's troublesome. - NBA Observer

by Illini15 on Nov 11, 2008 10:41 PM CST up reply actions  

really?

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 11, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions  

i actually think PER overrates rebounding

and underrates “intangibles” such as directing an offense, chemistry and playing defense, so you gets guys like Carl Landry leading in PER for an entire year because they play 20 minutes a game and grab 6 boards every time they are out there. Plus Hollinger and other ESPN writers have started to use per too broadly and in essence, use it to justify everything. Therefore Hollinger keeps picking the Rockets to do something because they are the all PER team.
.
i also people like you lean on statistics because you can’t follow what is happening in the game. Narf!

by DangerMouse on Nov 11, 2008 6:05 PM CST up reply actions  

oh my

PER doesn’t underrate your ‘intangibles’, it doesn’t rate them at all.

Listen, even 2 years ago you’d be mocked for what you’re saying, so I really don’t want to get into it yet again. I look forward to reading your scouting notebook.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 11, 2008 6:50 PM CST up reply actions  

read my reply above

and respond to that. The fact that you mock me doesn’t really mean shit to me. You can look at PER and say oh that player is good. But a GM can’t look at PER because PER tells that GM nothing about the player. A scout can’t look at PER because PER gives no detail about that player. So if the stat doesn’t give any detail, besides the player is good, bad or mediocre, than what is the stat telling me? I can look at someone’s pts per game and shooting percentage and decide whether that player is a good offensive player. PER lacks precision of any sort. I can look at someone’s rebounding numbers and say that guy is a great rebounder.

Do you need PER to tell you that Lebron is great? That Gordon is better than Hinrich? What exactly do you use the stat for?

Just because you are too silly and lazy to buy into anything but conventional wisdom, doesn’t really mean a flying fuck to me.

by DangerMouse on Nov 11, 2008 6:57 PM CST up reply actions  

not surprising it doesn't bother you

because you’re not sounding like a smart or even intellectually curious dude.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 11, 2008 7:01 PM CST up reply actions  

someone has a per of 32

quick, tell me what that means? What does that signify to you? You’ve come to this argument unequipped. Better go check the ESPN site so you can find Hollinger’s talking points

by DangerMouse on Nov 11, 2008 7:02 PM CST up reply actions  

but again

I won’t let this devolve into explaining PER to the stupid for the 100000x time.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 11, 2008 7:03 PM CST up reply actions  

you are so sad

you can’t argue a point so you always denigrate into name calling. i know how per works. I’m saying the number it generates isn’t as useful as the numbers that go into the formula. I would rather know the numbers that go into the formula when evaluating players than whether a guy has a per of 19.3 or 19.9. I think the numbers that go into the formula, evaluated separately, are far more valuable than the end result. If you can’t argue the point effectively, don’t respond.

by DangerMouse on Nov 11, 2008 7:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't see your point?

no one here says a PER of 19.9 means you’re necessarily better than the guy with a PER of 19.3 It’s just a useful tool to begin a discussion on a player’s ability level. Each player has strengths and weakness as you’re trying to say, but how do we evaluate that into a general idea. That’s what PER attempts to do, but trying to do that in any way is impossible to make perfect. You will see flaws in any system, including your own personal scouting report.

As it relates to your original post, DRose is 9th in PER, Anderson is averaging 21 points and 11 rebounds per 40 minutes with a 70% TS%. If he could play that well for 40 minutes, then he would easily deserve ROY over Rose. But the fact is he’s only played 52 minutes this year. So in any 52 minute stretch players can put up outstanding numbers. However, as he puts up the numbers, his coach will play him more and he will be forced to maintain that pace. It’s likely that figure will go down thus lowering his PER.

If you’ve read this site, which I’m sure you do because I’ve seen your posts before, then you’d notice no one around here has been quoting PER numbers or any numbers from this season. Because it’s simply to small of a grouping to get valuable data. It’s like in baseball where after the first 2 weeks of the year players are hitting .540. No one expects that to last.

Thorpe’s own ratings list Ryan Anderson as the15th best player, while Rose is listed 2nd. Mario Chalmers is 9th with a 12.36 PER. So no one anywhere is relating to PER this year as a determinant of success. But at the end of the year, if Anderson maintains this PER following increased minutes, I would hope you could give the guy his due respect.

by CJ Bulls on Nov 11, 2008 7:31 PM CST up reply actions  

agreed, I take back the mean stuff I said about you re: BG

some of it.

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by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 12, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions  

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