Some thoughts on Noah

I haven't written much about Noah, and part of the reason for that is I don't feel like I have a good handle on what he'll become.  Part of the problem is that there's no one to compare him to.  He's basically a freak as a player.  Guys built like Noah don't handle the ball the way he does, and they usually are more natural shotblockers than Noah.  Noah actually had a very similar rookie season to that of his college teammate All Horford.  They had the same TS% to go along with similar TO%s, USG%s, and PERs.  Which shouldn't be surprising considering how similar their college stats were.  But, it's so much easier to envision what Horford will become because he's a much more conventional player.  If I had to compare Noah to any player right now, that player would probably be Ben Wallace.  The other part of the problem is that his performance in some key areas varied dramatically during his rookie season.  I'm not sure, which is the real Noah, yet.

Noah's season can be pretty easily divided into three time periods.  Two months where he was he played limited minutes.  Two months where he mostly came off the bench playing about 20 minutes per game, and two months where he started.

There were definitely many positive signs in Noah's rookie season to go along with the question marks.   He led the team in adjusted +/- at plus 5.6 points.  The team was 4 points better on defense with Noah on the floor.  And his offensive rebounding helped to at least keep his offensive impact neutral.  It was a solid rookie season, but I'm not sure if it suggests greater things to come or merely more of the same.

I mentioned Ben Wallace before.  Noah wasn't similar to a 22 or 23 year old Ben Wallace.  He was similar to the Ben Wallace that played for the Bulls last year.  In all of the categories where Ben Wallace was supposed to be a difference maker, Noah put up similar numbers.  Their ORB%, DRB%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, and BLK% were all separated by 0.7% or less.  Which was indication of both how active Noah was on the offensive glass and defense and how far Wallace had fallen as a defensive rebounder.  If Wallace was simplay capable of being the offensive player that Noah was as a rookie, we might be thinking differently about Wallace now.

The positives are there.  Noah demonstrated the ability to be a top ten offensive rebounder in the NBA.   He steals the ball at an elite rate for big men.  He's wasn't a particuarly great shot blocker, but he was a notch above average.  He's never shown me that he's a natural shot blocker, but maybe he can improve on his skills in this area.  Given his size and athleticism, he should be better than his rookie numbers.  What I'll be looking for the most from Noah this season is improved defensive rebounding.  Noah's 18% DRB% isn't in LaMarcus Aldridge territory, but it's a long way from where it needs to be.  Noah was 56th in DRB% among players that played 1000 minutes, and there's a bunch of guys ahead of him that Noah needs to be out rebounding.  I'm looking for him to at least grab 20% of defensive boards this season, and I'd really like to see him eventually get to at least 25%.  I'm not completely convinced that he can get there though.  It's something I'm going to be monitoring as the season goes along, and something that needs to happen if the Bulls are going to be a great defensive team again.  Wallace was still grabbing over 21% in 06/07, and Chandler and even higher numbers.  It's a key area that will determine how good Noah can be.

There were positive signs on offense as well.  The biggest was that Noah appeared to learn how to finish in the NBA as the year progressed.  His FG% rose throughout the season, getting over 50% the last two months.  I'd like to see continued improvement.  His goal should be at least 53% given the shots he takes.  The 2nd biggest was that he got to the FT line, shooting better than 1 FTA for every 2 FGA.  Curiously he shot a remarkable 78% from the line the 1st two months.  Then he fell apart and shot 54% over the next two months before raising his FT% again over the last two months.  I'm not sure what was responsible for the drop off, but he at least showed the potential and ability to shoot at least 75% from the line even with the terrible shooting form.  He doesn't have to make a single jumpshot if he can shoot 75% from the line, considering the rate at which he gets to the FT line.  There's clearly the potential for Noah to be an effective offensive player within his limited opportunites.  He mangaged a 58% TS% over the last two months of the season when he was finishing better and hitting his FTAs.  The area to monitor this season is obviously turnovers, but it's an area that most 2nd year players improve at least a little.  But if Noah wants to handle the ball and take advantage of his passing ability, his turnovers have to come down significantly, not just a little. .

Ideally Noah moves from being a chaotic defensive factor to becoming a true defensive force.  That requires significantly improved defensive rebounding, and it hopefully involves Noah developing into a better on the ball defender that could allow Tyrus the freedom to be a weak side shot blocker.  Offensively, Noah is already acceptable.  He either needs to give up the ball and try to become a high efficiency/low usage player in the Chandler/Biedrins or significantly improve his decison making on offense.  I'd be content with the former, but I'm sure he'll at least try to do the latter given his skills and love of handling the ball.  But, I'm also not sure he's truly capable of doing either.  I'm not sure he's athletic enough to do what Chandler and Biedrins do, and I'm not sure his offensive I.Q. can reach the necessary level.  Noah is something of a mystery to me right now.  There should be the potential there to be a really good defender and offensive role player, but that potential also might now really exist due to physical and mental limitations.  Whether he develops into something more or not, what he is right now is pretty good.  If he can sustain most of what he did in the 2nd half of the season, he's a very solid starting caliber front court player and a solid building block.