How can we calculate the "Bust rate" of the NBA?

by Starred4Life on Jul 11, 2007 11:26 PM CDT

There must be a way to calculate this...obviously we need to set parameters for what qualifies as a bust, yada, yada, but we should give this a shot.

If we do decide to pursue this noble enterprise, I guarantee we'll be shocked to see just how common the "Bust" is in the NBA.

Sure, there's busts in every league of every sport, but the NBA seems like it has three busts for every one in, say, the NFL or MLB.

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MLB

HA! They draft about 400 players each year in the top 10 rounds(considered pretty high picks, there are 40 some rounds), and only about 1 or 2 gets to the HOF from each year. NBA draft has 60 players, of which the lottery(top quarter) is probably 1/3 bust, 1/3 underperform, 1/3 good or better than expected. About 1 HOFer per 2 drafts, I'd guess. Even if the rest are "busts" that's still better than baseball.

NBA busts are just a million times more visible because the minor leagues aren't used often, and a player fails on the court with the actual team, instead of languishing in minor league baseball for a decade, and then peddling facial hair products because he was once supposed to be a great player.

by cubbybear on Jul 12, 2007 2:24 AM CDT reply actions

not to mention

that the NBA draft is one of the most hyped sports events of the year...the MLB draft isn't televised, and almost no coverage given to it

by milesgmsu on Jul 12, 2007 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions

I think it was this year

Need new sig

by bullshooter on Jul 12, 2007 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah the MLB Draft was

televised this year. I was also there.

by SRQman on Jul 12, 2007 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions

While noble

While a noble and interesting pursuit, the trouble is the different nature of each sport. Baseball consistently drafts from high school and a stud pitcher who goes 25-2 with a 1.24 era and 275 strikeouts in 154 innings isn't guaranteed to do anything.

Scouting in general is a joke but baseball scouting is atrocious. You have guys like Prior, Mauer, ARod, and other who are known to be at worst serviceable and at best HOF quality, but guys like Pujols get drafted in the 24th round and Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round simply as a favor to Tommy Lasorda who was Piazza's godfather (I think).

by CubFan81 on Jul 12, 2007 9:06 AM CDT reply actions

I hear you guys about the MLB

But to me, since the MLB drafts SO MANY players, their draft picks/busts get 'less weight' so to speak. In my opinion, the more players you draft, the better chance you'll draft a bust. Scouting is EXTREMELY difficult in my opinion, so I don't subscribe to the "the more you draft the better your percentages."

I also wasn't just talking about each league's draft either. I was hoping to include FA signings as well (oh yeah fellas, this would be one Huge, comprehensive list). In fact, when I made the diary about this subject, I guess I was thinking more toward FA signings, but it would be fun (albeit difficult) to include draft picks as well.

I dunno, but to me it just seems that the FA period in the NBA is annually one of the most wackiest times in sports. Something absolutely CRAZY is almost guaranteed to happen every single year (for '07's entry, see: Lewis, Rashard).

by Starred4Life on Jul 12, 2007 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions

The Lewis signing wasn't "CRAZY"

I'm already tired of the comparison to the Gerald Wallace contract like Lewis is an equal player to Wallace. Wallace has only had 2 good seasons, Lewis is a better offensive player, and he's hitting his prime. It's probably too big a contract, but I don't think it's massively undeserved.

by hscs on Jul 12, 2007 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Lewis v. Wallace

I don't think the Lewis signing was that crazy but the difference between what he will be making and what wallace will be making is crazy. I agree Lewis is a much better player offensively and can carry the scoring load for a team, but Wallace is a much better player defensively. He also shoots at a higher percentage. I don't think he is a go to scorer but he could become one, just like Deng could become one. In terms of age, Wallace will be hitting his prime in 3-5 years when he will be playing with the bobcats. In 5 years, Rashard will be 33-34 and not doing so great.

Wallace might not be as proven, but I don't think his case was contract year performance malfunction. He has been improving consistently since he moved to the Bobcats after being buried in the bench in Sac. No one was surprised when Wallace had a good season last year. They weren't speaking of how improved he was like a Miki Moore.

by Sambossanova on Jul 12, 2007 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions

How can you already be tired of it

when nobody's made the comparison yet. You spent four days bitching about Noc's deal, but Lewis's deal doesn't even rate a few posts?

Need new sig

by bullshooter on Jul 12, 2007 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions

when did Lewis become one of best in league?

How can you say Lewis contract isn't crazy when he isn't one of top players in the league? Would you build a team around him?

I think if player like Lewis is getting that big of contract it spells bad news for Bulls trying to sign Deng and Gordon.

by NY Chicago Fan on Jul 12, 2007 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess

but I'd still rather 'overpay' (and specifically rather give them multi-year deals) for Gordon and Deng than overpay for Nocioni.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jul 12, 2007 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree on multi-year part

Need to lock Deng up now, I think his value will only go up based on his age and desire to work on his game and improve

by NY Chicago Fan on Jul 12, 2007 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions

I wouldn't build a team around him,

and if I had Dwight Howard that wouldn't be a problem. I said he's probably paid too much, but fair value for a good sized scorer like Lewis isn't a whole lot lower. I was disputing the all-caps crazy description more than anything else. That should be saved for contracts that are Theo Ratliff bad.

by hscs on Jul 12, 2007 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions

exactly

I wouldn't build team around him either and I think by paying Lewis so much, when Howard is on the max contract that Orlando will have trouble filling in the pieces to be a contender.

I get your point that many scorers are overpaid and there are much worse contracts

It just seems like owners just make things worse and worse by continuing to overpay for mariginal allstars which just drives up prices more.

by NY Chicago Fan on Jul 12, 2007 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions

I think

He might just be the next Steve Francis.

by cubbybear on Jul 12, 2007 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions

care to explain that comment

because Francis is in his own special category of bad deals.

Need new sig

by bullshooter on Jul 13, 2007 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions

That Lewis contract

was CRAZY in my opinion.

There's not doubt Lewis is a good NBA player. 22/6 is nothing to sneeze at per se, but a player can be measured by so much more than those two statistics...he shoots a very low percentage for someone his size, doesn't have a solid mid-range jumper and has a pedestrian TO/Assist ratio. And if you're only going to look at the two aforementioned statistics, you have to take into account Lewis will undoubtedly score less in the much slower-paced Eastern Conference.

But the reason this contract is "CRAZY" has nothing to do with the dollars matching the stats.

I'm of the opinion that D. Howard will be the best big man in the Leage very soon, and will be for some time. The Lewis signing prohibits the Magic from surrounding Howard with necessary support to maximize Howard's potential. Now if Lewis were an outstanding 3pt shooter as well that would be one thing, but he's not and will be doing basically the same thing as Howard.

Can you say collapse the middle? They have no 3pt threats. They have no one who can keep a defense honest on the perimeter. One could say they are the BIZARRO Bulls in that regard. Just don't like this contract becuase it limits the effectiveness of one of the great budding stars in the NBA, and anytime a contract does something like that is has to be considered CRAZY...

by Starred4Life on Jul 14, 2007 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions

false

by hscs on Jul 14, 2007 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions

False x 2

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jul 14, 2007 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions

do you mean I'm false for typing false

or the commenter who thinks Rashard Lewis isn't a shooter and "will be doing basically the same thing as Howard" is false x2?

by hscs on Jul 14, 2007 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions

not that im defending the contract

but the idea was to get a shooter with howard...couple that with redick and turgolu and you have decent enough shooters

by milesgmsu on Jul 15, 2007 7:49 AM CDT up reply actions

He reminds me a lot of Joe Johnson

Old, New and Contract Situations. The parallel bodes well for Lewis, except that his team is better than Atlanta, though they have put some pieces together.

by cubbybear on Jul 12, 2007 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Somebody from ESPN

did an article on this for the NBA a few weeks ago. It might have been an Insider thing, but I don't think so.

Need new sig

by bullshooter on Jul 12, 2007 9:45 AM CDT reply actions

hollinger?

by milesgmsu on Jul 12, 2007 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions

Ya,

this type of thing sounds right up Hollinger's alley...

Maybe we should submit it to the King of the Crunched Number???

by Starred4Life on Jul 12, 2007 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Matt, you got any

pull with 'ol Hollinger?

by Starred4Life on Jul 12, 2007 12:50 PM CDT reply actions

why don't you just go to espn.com

and search for the article yourself?

Need new sig

by bullshooter on Jul 12, 2007 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Wasn't asking

for him to find the article. I was asking if he could submit our little--yet interesting--topic here to John Hollinger.

I've already looked for an article that covers the topic being discussed here and found nothing in Hollinger's archives. I'm looking for a study of "Bust Rates" that spans the 'three majors' (MLB, NBA, NFL).

by Starred4Life on Jul 14, 2007 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions