Hollinger rates the draft!

by Rankdog on Jun 26, 2007 3:48 PM CDT

Ran acorss this article on ESPN Insider.

Hollinger basically rates the potential draftee's by the college production. It was a good read then I hit something that caught my eye.

Acie Law and Spencer Hawes are best to be avoided. Both are viewed as late-lottery picks, but they look like solid second-rounders from here. Hawes has an unimpressive rebound rate, which is a huge red flag considering he was bigger than everyone he played against. And for all the talk of his great post skills, he had a run-of-the-mill 55.0 true shooting percentage and didn't even have the best PER on his mediocre team (that belonged to Jon Brockman). A lot of folks think he can become a quality pro post player; based on his numbers, I just don't see it. Apparently neither made it to the top 20 based on the numbers.

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Comments

I like the article

Surely any method will have its flaws but looks like he did put some thought into this and does make some good points. Sometimes the little obvious things get overlooked. Like can Brewer dribble and create in NBA or did he benifit greatly from being on loaded team and not looked at to be primary scorer? And Hawes rebounding is obvious concern that many have brought up.

Looks like based ranking, if Noah or BWright (I think he is worth the risk, could have big potential) isn't at 9 then maybe Bulls should trade down or out if the want a PF/C

by NY Chicago Fan on Jun 26, 2007 3:55 PM CDT reply actions

I just wish

Yi was able to be ranked

Head of the Yi Jianlian fan club

by Option27 on Jun 26, 2007 3:56 PM CDT reply actions

This is interesting work

Obviously it isn't perfect, but it's nice to have another source to at least provide "things that make you go hmmmmm" about these guys.

To lighten the mood after Hollinger's method shits on Spencer Hawes, realize that Tyrus Thomas demolishes the field amongst last year's class.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 26, 2007 4:18 PM CDT reply actions

Would you change your ideas?

Does this article matter enough that you, personally, have a different preference?

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 26, 2007 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions

eh, not really

I don't have many ideas on these guys anyway, if you couldn't tell already.

I guess the big souring would be on Acie Law, since he's 'old' and still scores horribly.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 26, 2007 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions

flash in pan

I think Acie law isn't tall or atheletic enough to get in done in NBA. He hit some big shots in college which has made his "name" bigger then his "game". Bulls should stay away, no upside and doesn't fit a need

by NY Chicago Fan on Jun 26, 2007 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm okay taking risk this year

We all know Bulls have solid team and without future trades or major injuries should not be back into lottery for some time as they should be in playoffs every year. So if someone impresses Pax and shows that maybe not ready but like Tyrus could have real impact on the game then I hope Bulls grab that player.

If not then just get a solid big (even if that means trading down) that can come off the bench behind Wallace / Thomas and provide some size at rookie contract and give team more room to grow and make moves

by NY Chicago Fan on Jun 26, 2007 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions

This really has me thinking...

I'd been rooting for Hawes over anyone else, even if he'd need a couple years' seeasoning. I just haven't heard any other draftee's low-post scoring skills talked up as much as his, at a time in the NBA when everyone complains about the lack of low-post scorers.

But that's not the only thing that caught my eye. Did you see his list of past drafts and where Bulls players were ranked...especially Tyrus?!

by T Maple on Jun 26, 2007 4:27 PM CDT reply actions

Wilson Chandler at 18?

wow.

by bu11s on Jun 26, 2007 4:29 PM CDT reply actions

not really

His 'stock' has been rising, and he's an alleged Isiah Thomas favorite. It shouldn't surprise anyone that Chandler scored well. Zeke really can pick 'em.

Patrick O'Bryant coming in at 6 in 2006 is the only big surprise. The recent discovery that he can't play basketball really makes me wonder who he was playing against in college.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Jun 26, 2007 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Hollinger tries to normalize

He incorporates strength of schedule...but that doesn't do enough to figure out the types of strengths that opponents had, such as interior defense.

Then again, he takes the sledgehammer approach and just deducts points from all 7-footers automatically, which makes it surprising that O'Bryant still finished quite high.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 26, 2007 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Are we sure Bryant's a bust?

I remember everyone saying he wasn't going to work in Golden State after Don Nelson was hired a full two months after the draft. Not that I'm dismissing Nelson's eye for talent, but it was predicted that he wouldn't fit into Nellie-Ball before the season started.

Besides that, the guy only played in 16 games at 7.4 mpg. What can we (as non-observant fans) deduce from that?

I'm fully ready to accept that he is a bust, but if we could trade Krappy or anyone else in that price range for him, I'd do it quick-like.

Anyway, if they're that down on him, just a thought.

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 26, 2007 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions

you're forgetting

his underwhelming play in the D-League.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Jun 26, 2007 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Not really.

25 games (w/ 12 ppg) still isn't a ton. 3rd in the NBDL in Reb doesn't seem completely underwhelming. Doesn't project greatness, but not disastrous. Plus, he was hurt all through training camp. And it's not like no one knew he wasn't a project.

Not saying he won't be a bust. But taking into account Hollinger's table (not saying it's perfect), and given the Bulls current situation, and taking into account all the mitigating factors, I'd rather have O'Bryant than Khryapa and a second-round pick.

I don't think he could be had. No one gives up on a lottery pick after one year, do they? And I wouldn't want the Bulls to make a package that would overwhelm the Warriors. It was just an idle thought after seeing Hollinger's past rankings and how much O'Bryant's already been in the doghouse. No big deal.

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 26, 2007 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions

he was a lottery pick

Going to the D-League was disastrous. Veektor at least proved his usefulness in Portland, and a second round pick has a better chance of contributing.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Jun 26, 2007 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Without the formula unpublished

I worked through the criteria for Chandler v. Julian Wright as I consider them to have wildly divergent potential. Hollinger's formula certainly favors good (or potentially good in the case of Thaddeus Young) offensive players over those that I suspect will have significant defensive value (Noah, Brewer, Julian Wright) in the NBA.

by Hoopinion on Jun 26, 2007 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Without the formula published

by Hoopinion on Jun 26, 2007 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions

To some extent.

PER already favors good offense over good defense, with the exception of steals and blocks. Hollinger's methods have been kinder to inefficient scorers that don't defend than most of his colleagues.

by Scotter on Jun 26, 2007 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow

That is really pretty interesting.

In Hawes' case, his illness might account for some of the less-than-stellar numbers, but it still doesn't bode too well.

I still am not a fan of several guys who Hollinger rated highly, but I guess we'll see. It will be really interesting to see how accurate this rating is in 3 years (particularly with respect to Hawes, Law, Brewer, and Young).

One thing's for sure -- this article did pump me up about Deng and Thomas!

Draft pick rodeo -- Yi Hawes!

by preverbal on Jun 26, 2007 4:37 PM CDT reply actions

Also

I think his rebounding teammate might hurt him more than it should, but doesn't explain how he is quite that low. Based on Paxson's recent drafting, I don't think that he will go all traditional NBA on us. I think Brandan Wright is secretly his favorite. Tyrus, but taller and more scoring and shooting. I think that this article shows that Hawes is a bigger risk than he seems, and that a player like Noah or McRoberts(if we traded down) might be a better choice. I personally have wondered why McRoberts dropped so far for seemingly not much of a reason. Hollinger sort of vindicated me. He has a higher rating than Brandon Roy, Deron Williams, Ben Gordon and Hinrich. If you think the system is even close to reliable, that has to jump out at you.

Let's finish Zeke off with a diamond in the rough!

by cubbybear on Jun 27, 2007 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions

It does me.

I watched him play last fall, though, and you could certainly see intangibles that others cite as negatives. Think of all the crazy cliches that Noah has attributed as positives, and then apply the opposites to McRoberts. Then, you add in that his rebounding and scoring were not what one might expect for someone his size or athletic ability.

I'd like Noah and then get into that 18-23 range and pick up McRoberts or Splitter.

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 27, 2007 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions

It's certainly interesting

It's another tool in box of analysis. Tyrus's number is awesome. Only Carmelo and Durant's were higher. It only reinforces my belief in his ability.

by Scotter on Jun 26, 2007 4:57 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah, that's filthy

by paxson43 on Jun 26, 2007 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions

As for Hawes

The two areas Hollinger points to, FG% and Rebound rate were good enough before he got sick to likely have pushed him out of danger territory. He was shooting above 55% before he got sick. It still takes some scouting and projection. Hollinger's lists aren't exactly bust free. If I were a fan of any other team, I'm sure I would have more doubts about Hawes. I believe he'll be good a player on the Bulls. If he goes to the wrong team. He'll be bust like most flawed players.

by Scotter on Jun 26, 2007 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions

And the remark about Brockman having a higher PER

seems a little silly. Brockman was a McDonald's All American too and a sophomore.

by Scotter on Jun 26, 2007 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Aldridge = Longhorn

Why does Hollinger's table say he went to Western Carolina? I don't know enough college ball to see if there are other errors.

by paxson43 on Jun 26, 2007 5:03 PM CDT reply actions

It says Texas when I look at it.

Although it has him as the 1st player taken when he was the 2nd.

by Scotter on Jun 26, 2007 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Only NCAA guys are on the list.

All the lists complied lack foriegn players and high school players. You will notice Lebron, Yao, and Dwight Howard missing as the top picks on the other lists as well.

"If you're not going to compete, then I'll dominate you." MJ

by Rankdog on Jun 26, 2007 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Paxson is a mutha-effin' stud.

According to this, and real life, there isn't one player that he screwed up on. He would have needed someone that was on the board and rated higher that Paxson passed on, and has ended up having a better career that whom the Bulls drafted.

Somehow, Paxson has Hollinger's formula in his mind, combined with an ability to weed out the others.

Based on this, I fully expect Paxson to take Noah. It almost seems like a no-brainer--as if I don't even have to watch the draft. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him sneak into the second to grab McRoberts, Davis or Cook... or take Strawberry if he's still around later.

I think Noah's the pick.

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 26, 2007 5:30 PM CDT reply actions

McRoberts

17 - 22 range. It would cost an arm and a leg to get back into the draft to select there. Only possibility would be the 76ers moving up 3 spots from 12 to 9 and giving up 21, but that is highly unlikely because Bulls only gave up a 2nd rounder to move up to grab Thabo last year.

by Jesse07 on Jun 26, 2007 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm hoping

we can pick up that Herbert Hill fella in the 2nd.

Draft pick rodeo -- Yi Hawes!

by preverbal on Jun 26, 2007 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions

not to be too picky

but there were a couple blown 2nd rounders

by milesgmsu on Jun 26, 2007 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Yea I noticed that too

With every pick we got quality talent.
In 2003, Hinrich is 7th best coming out, we get him with the 5th pick. And don't forget that we picked up Sweets a year later in the Crawford deal, he was the 2nd rated player, and at the time was coming off a solid rookie season. Who knew he would eat his way out the league?
In 2004, we shrewedly pick up the 7th ranked talent with our top pick, then swing a deal for the highest rated player at #7.
Then to top it all off, in 2006, after going to the playoffs for 2 straight years, we get the hands down best prospect in the draft.
I know these rankings aren't absolute, but there pretty good. I'm not worried who Pax picks up, he'll be a good player.

by Ceasaleo on Jun 27, 2007 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions

Correction--with the high picks he's gotten qualit

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 27, 2007 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions

We didn't get Sweetney in the Crawford Deal

We got him in the Curry deal. He was well on his way to whaledom, and had an underwhelming sophomore slump under his belt, along with lots of doughnuts.

Sweetney jokes are too easy. Truth is, if he could lose weight and stay off the Shawn Kemp diet, he could really be a steal. Signed for a small enough contract, might be a good value.

Let's finish Zeke off with a diamond in the rough!

by cubbybear on Jun 27, 2007 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Jeff Green

I still like Green. If you watch games, instead of just looking at charts, I really think Green is a no brain numbr 9 pick if hes still there.

by Sambossanova on Jun 26, 2007 5:53 PM CDT reply actions

I wonder

if he took the last few years, devised an equation that preferred the players who ended up succeeding, and then ran that same equation on this year's draft?

Or, did he take a sample of drafts, find the equation that worked best on those years, and then after coming up with satisfying results try it on the other years (which turned out to work well too)?

If you can't see the difference, the first situation actually lacks any control set of data--a must for forming any theory. If so, his system only works as a descriptive tool, and is untested as a predictive tool.

Although what do I know? His predictions for this year sound very plausible.

by Craig Hodges Explosion 3000 on Jun 26, 2007 7:41 PM CDT reply actions

goodies

http://www.draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=2136 = Centers

http://www.draftexpress.com/viewarticle.php?a=2128 = PF's

For you NumberNuts out there, these reads might be helpful. I caught them earlier this week and they were not very flattering for Hawes. One other troubling concern w/ Hawes was that he played next to a pretty talented big that should have enabled his all-around game quite a bit.

Of course, I don't get paid by the NBA for a reason, so the kid could end up being the next McHale - which is to say that he'll run an NBA franchise into the ground in spite of having one of the league's all-time great talents at his disposal.

Take a look at Noah's number as they compare to Horford too. Pretty even, except for a few categories in which Horford posts better numbers.

by CookDing on Jun 26, 2007 10:32 PM CDT reply actions

Zing!

by Craig Hodges Explosion 3000 on Jun 26, 2007 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions

I know

you're not speaking ill of the BEST GM IN SPORTS.

by Petor on Jun 27, 2007 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions

Hawes is getting killed everywhere

How much can a freshman year illness explain?

I really think he best fits the need IF he can play, but these statistical comparisons raise serious questions about whether that's the case.

Draft pick rodeo -- Yi Hawes!

by preverbal on Jun 27, 2007 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions

Noah's the pick.

Unless it's traded, of course. At first, I heard all the negativity about how he's "just a screamer", blah blah blah, but I'm now convinced that if he's there, he's the Bulls' pick.

The 7'0"-ness(?), the above-average athletic ability, the defensive ability, the versatility, the efficiency in all facets, the unselfishness and knowledge of his own limitations, the ability to "contribute right away" should be enough at this point. And when you throw in the cliches such as having a "non-stop motor" or that he's "a winner", I don't see how the Bulls pass on him.

A week ago, I was least excited at the thought of drafting Noah because of his lack of "great potential" or not having any one area standout. But dammit, he's effective. And if he's drafted, and the Bulls somehow bring in another 7-ft body, I don't see how they won't at least be in the ECF next year.

Yes, of course.

by tyger1147 on Jun 27, 2007 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions

Not to mention

We'd be getting the #1 pick in the draft...last year's draft.

by Craig Hodges Explosion 3000 on Jun 27, 2007 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions

if he's there...

needs to make it past 5 in my estimation...
of course, the wolves and or bobcats could become inexplicably intelligent and correctly select him.

by CookDing on Jun 28, 2007 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Oh Sweets...

It's sad to read about how far short of expectations Sweets has fallen...

Sweetney is the one brow-raiser -- he was an absolute monster in college (hard to believe the guy we see now averaged nearly two steals a game at Georgetown) and had a rookie PER on par with that of Wade and Bosh before he started losing the battle of the bulge.

I hope that Sweets manages his weight issues.

by paxson43 on Jun 27, 2007 12:04 AM CDT reply actions

Penn Forward rates the draft

A counterpoint to the statomatic analysis, Penn forward Stephen Danley rates some of the draft prospects he played against in college.

Of particular interest to me was his opinion of Acie Law . . .

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/25/sports/24cnd-danley.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&adxnnl=1&ad xnnlx=1182974716-wn9pXzV8OAVbG4a1fEhIyQ

Draft pick rodeo -- Yi Hawes!

by preverbal on Jun 27, 2007 3:12 PM CDT reply actions

Great Read

-ing that link. Can't stand all them stats either---too poor to be Insider, also.

Interesting stuff on Green and B Wright. Also Big Baby Davis, who I'd never blame Pax for passing on (Sweets), but has the Milsap/Lee surprise vibe this year.

by marionette on Jun 27, 2007 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions