SBNation mock draft: Bulls pick has been made
I waffled between Jeff Green and Spencer Hawes, and settled on Hawes.
What it came down to was acknowledging that Jeff Green was no sure bet to contribute either, and that Hawes could possibly follow a Tyrus Thomas-like path of increased minutes as the season went on, even if he wasn't 'ready' right away.
So it wasn't completely for 'need'. I don't think Pax should take Hawes if he's truly far away from contributing just because his skills fit more of what the Bulls are lacking. At a pick this valuable it's too much of a risk to reach for a need, because if Hawes is a bust, then not only do you still need a low-post scorer but you punted your pick. But I'm assuming Pax will have enough information to make the judgment amongst Hawes and the rest of those potentially available at #9 to limit his risk.
In this mock-draft game, I did have a tentative agreement to deal the pick to the Spurs with Duhon and Khryapa for the rights to Luis Scola, Fransisco Elson, Beno Udrih, and the #28 pick. But I assume the Spurs 'GM' was busy last night pouring champagne on his head, so we ran out of time. There was also late discussion with the Hawks representative to deal down to #11 and nab Zaza Pachulia in the process, but that was turned down. Other proposals for Duhon (and Khryapa) included Brendan Haywood, Etan Thomas, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Unfortunately those players had long-term contracts, which is why I liked that proposed Spurs deal a lot more. However, like the unknown with Spencer Hawes, I trust that Pax knows a lot more than I do regarding whether Luis Scola can play.
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Very interesting. I like it.
We'll see if Pax follows Matt's pick.
If the pick is between Green and Hawes
Hawes
by TT 4 Prez on Jun 15, 2007 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions
See...
Let's also say over the next two years that Deng improves to be a really, really good, but not great, player? His extension at a reasonable price would give the Bulls some great trading chips (combined with Hinrich). That's also why I wouldn't worry about a high-ceiling point guard. Hinrich, Gordon and Deng are pretty damn good players, but none are absolutely irreplaceable.
If the Bulls drafted Conley, Green, Julian Wright, etc. I wouldn't consider it the end of the world.
In your scenario
by bullshooter on Jun 15, 2007 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Really?
So... if a year from now, they get Gasol for Deng + weak parts (instead of Deng + Tyrus + #9) they won't be any better, huh?
Hinrich-Thabo
Gordon
Green
Gasol-Thomas
Wallace
is absolutely no better than
Hinrich-Duhon
Gordon
Deng-Nocioni
___
Wallace
Sure, that takes some resigning liberties or whatever, but that's what makes your predictions so absolutely astounding.
It seems to me that a year from now, Green might be only a slight drop-off from Deng (ohmygod! ludicrous! inconceivable) while Gasol would be a huge upgrade over Hawes/Noah.
That's a pipe dream
So...
By getting better
That's one way.
Where did you see this quote that Paxson said/implied he won't be spending more than "50 cents on the dollar for disgruntled All-Stars"?
Is Deng some kind of God?
What's more probable/possible: Green approaching Deng's production or Hawes/Noah approaching Gasol's production? Being as Gasol was one of the most efficient players in the game, and that Green has a larger body of work to project him at, I say it's the former.
This is totally subjective, but let's put some guys on a 1-10 scale (I've never thought of it like this, but it at least sort of goes along with what I'm thinking):
Deng is a 7/8
Gasol a 8/9
Green, I think could be a 6-7
Hawes, anywhere from 4-8/9
To me, the choice is obvious. This draft is important; even if they do nothing, it will set things up for the future (duh). But if they sit pat and draft a bust, I don't see them ever being the elite team we want. They'll be good for many years, but not one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the league.
If you disagree that's fine, I just don't understand your "Oh my God, Luol Deng is untouchable" idea. Maybe the lack of a trade had as much to do with the combination of Deng, Tyrus and missing out on Greg Oden/Durant. In fact, I think it had as much to do with the pick as anything (not more, as much). How bad would trading Deng, Thomas and Oden for Gasol look? Horrible.
Anyway, I talk too much.
You do talk too much
Just wanted to be sure
Definitely.
me neither
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 15, 2007 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
DAmn spurs
Nicely done sir
Can't wait to see how Pax comes out on all this.
that trade
But I'm not sure Hawes will be helpful (right away, anyway) either, so I guess I don't have any better plan.
I wish Hibbert had kept his name in the draft. We need at least 1 person in the 7- or 8-man rotation who's taller than 6'9". I guess Hawes is it.
by Bayern Munich on Jun 15, 2007 10:20 AM CDT reply actions
Elson is 7'
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 15, 2007 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Fair enough
Certainly, he could be a good addition. I haven't seen him play too much, but he could be a useful tool.
Even so - I feel like the most valuable single piece in the 6-piece deal is the #9 pick, and the Bulls are on the wrong side of that piece's movement. But, as I've said, I don't have any easy answers either.
by Bayern Munich on Jun 15, 2007 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Hawes and Green
I guess the three or four inches Hawes has on Tyler Hansbrough is another big factor as they're similar players with the exception of Hansbrough's massively superior production in college and Hansbrough isn't considered a great NBA prospect.
Green v. Hawes in 06-07
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| Green | 83.0 | 56.0 | 77.5 | 1.20 | 28.8 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 16.3 |
| Hawes | 69.0 | 53.3 | 75.5 | 1.14 | 29.5 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 8.1 | 18.1 |
Green's eFG% isn't just a result of his three-point shooting. He made a higher percentage of his two-point shots (55.9) than did Hawes (53.3).
I don't know if Green and Deng could play alongside each other effectively (there are certainly situations in which they would struggle defensively) but I'm pretty sure that Green and Deng would be more productive than Deng and Hawes.
Hawes was sick
by bullshooter on Jun 15, 2007 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Hawes was sick!
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 15, 2007 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
heh ;-)
by bullshooter on Jun 15, 2007 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
Hawes whole appeal
In his one year of college he barely outrebounded a "ball-handling small forward," made fewer two-point field goals, and turned the ball over almost as often as Green but without a similar number of assists.
I don't think the Bulls get better by adding a player who could develop into Zaza Pachulia or Nick Collison.
Absolutely they do...
Great pick Matt.
Hawes v. Aaron Gray
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| Gray | 67.7 | 56.5 | 54.8 | 1.15 | 31.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 25.4 |
| Hawes | 69.0 | 53.3 | 75.5 | 1.14 | 29.5 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 8.1 | 18.1 |
That's Gray's senior year versus Hawes' freshman year, but even an immobile "legit 7-footer" like Gray never posted an OR% below 12.9 in any season of his college career.
Hawes will be picked on the basis of his upside (and I think his offensive game has room for growth) but his low OR% and S/100 numbers really give me doubt as to whether or not he can ever be good at enough things to be a starter on a good team.
Regardless of positional need, I'd rather draft a good basketball player than Spencer Hawes were I given the chance but maybe there's a market for Eddy Curry nostalgia in Chicago. Or Mike Sweetney with a higher center of gravity.
He doesn't need to rebound
by bullshooter on Jun 15, 2007 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
That's sort of my point
That's just plain wrong
by bullshooter on Jun 15, 2007 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
does he have 3pt range?
by NY Chicago Fan on Jun 15, 2007 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
You're right, sort of.
The point is: Deng could be used to address deficiencies, Green could allow the team to then not have created other deficiencies.
(Such as, trading Ben Gordon for a 20-pt scorer seems to just replace one need with another. Drafting someone like Green--it won't happen, so why are we discussing it--allows the Bulls to avoid this.)
9th picks aren't future backups.
Since 97, here are some #9 Picks(granted, some sucked too)
TMac
Nowitzki
S. Marion
Pryzbilla
A. Stoudemire
Iguodola
The rest were mostly mistakes, but quality can be had, especially in stronger drafts like this one. I think expecting someone as good as Iguodola is reasonable for a strong draft.
First, you're ignoring
Didn't Gray sprain his ankle in that game?
I recall Hawes getting the better of the matchup, but looking at the numbers neither one distinguished himself.
Gray was awful (2-7 from the field, 1-2 from the line, 3 OR, 7 DR, and 2 each of A, TO, BS, and S) but Hawes (6-16 from the field, no FTA, 4 OR, 8 DR, 4 A, 2 TO, 3 BS, and a steal) was good only in comparison to Gray.
I certainly don't think that Gray is the better player but I seem to think that Hawes is a lot less farther along in his development than other folks do.
outrebounded
by Sambossanova on Jun 15, 2007 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Brockman
Playing alongside an excellent rebounder doesn't necessarily depress your own rebounding numbers. Al Horford put up (OR%/DR%) 12.2/27 alongside Joakim Noah's 13.3/24.6 and vice versa.
Hawes isn't a bad player (probably) but, on-court, he's been outperformed by the other potential lottery picks .
I'm not saying Hawes will rebound like
There's no doubt
At the risk of giving Lorenzo Romar too much credit, doesn't it give you pause that the player who would be drafted to give the Bulls a post presence offensively was used to feed an inferior post player this past season?
No because College is made for the
The whole appeal of Hawes is that he is good
As college freshmen
| Name | %Min | eFG% | FT% | PPWS | Pts | A | TO | BS | S | OR% | DR% |
| Hawes | 69.0 | 53.3 | 75.5 | 1.14 | 29.5 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 8.1 | 18.1 |
| Thomas | 57.2 | 61.0 | 65.7 | 1.27 | 27.7 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 12.7 | 26.2 |
Hawes missed one game, Thomas missed four.
Tyrus Thomas, without any offensive game at all as a freshman at LSU was a more efficient scorer than Hawes and almost as productive a scorer in terms of volume while be a far superior rebounder and defender.
Hawes absolutely has massive developmental work to do as a rebounder and defender before he can be a useful NBA player. And that's assuming that his offensive skills (which were not especially effective at Washington last year) translate immediately to the NBA.
I think Hawes would have good value at the end of the first round, but there a lot more than 8 players better than Hawes in this draft.
You're comparing
Your use of college statistics is also pretty meaning less outside of the rebounding numbers, which I've already addressed. College stats have no value without context. For instance Thomas played as the 4th option on a good team where he never had a played called for him. Hawes's lead his team in his scoring. Was always the 1st or second option, and was the primary focus of the defense. And he played with a bunch of crap. If you want to look base things on college stats, look up Michael Sweetney's. There really good, I bet he's a great NBA player.
I'm only putting their college stats into context
Despite being the 1st or 2nd option, Hawes barely outscored Thomas who, you quite rightly point out, never had a play called for him. (Or if he did have a play called for him it would end badly, if not comically.)
I have seen Hawes play quite a bit. That's why I'm flabbergasted that he's considered less of a project than Thomas was last year.
That's not the context,
That's why I want him for the Bulls. He played within the system. On the Bulls, he's going to get open shots off the pick and roll/pop. Gordon and Hinrich will space the floor, and give him space to actually use his moves. He'll make the Bulls better by scoring in the post some, but his passing is the big key. The ability to find Deng on cuts. The ability to find shooters from the post or on the perimeter. What seperates Hawes from all these small forwards with better statistics is his ability to make the game easier for the other players.
It sounds like we mostly saw the same games
Every scouting report I have read indicates that
I realize he is young, but he probably isn't going to get more athletic as he ages.
Why do the Bulls need another average athlete? We have enough of those.
I hope Paxson takes the best athlete available at nine, regardless of whether he meets our specific needs. It would be great if he could move up to snag Brewer or Yi.
by 1958ChiTown on Jun 15, 2007 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Do you think Deng has gotten
He's a true center
by bullshooter on Jun 15, 2007 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Carl Lewis was the best Bull ever
by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Jun 15, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
he was certainly the fastest.
by bullshooter on Jun 15, 2007 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
yes
Take the best player available.
by jamestkirk on Jun 15, 2007 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Alright!
maybe
by Sambossanova on Jun 15, 2007 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Rebounding
by jamestkirk on Jun 15, 2007 1:22 PM CDT reply actions
The question is whether Hawes
Spencer Hawes is a stiff
Forget drafting for need this year, this draft is too loaded! There is too much talent there for having to resort to drafting a 7 foot white guy just because the team needs a center. The track record on 7 foot white guys taken in the lottery isn't so good, if you haven't noticed. Paxson is smart enough to avoid disaster, but apparently everyone else is pretty sold on drafting a stiff.
by vlad001 on Jun 15, 2007 2:28 PM CDT reply actions
Get the best talent possible
by vlad001 on Jun 15, 2007 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
What Hawes Brings...
I cant say all the stats on hawes are wrong, but i dont he is as bad as alot of people are making him out to be. From what ive heard, its really hard to develop a post game, it is impossible to learn size, and the younger you are the more pottential you have to get better.
Hawes is only 19, at best it would be better to look at him when he is at the age of 22 to determine what his nba future really will be. Hawes is a 7 footer, and of all the 7 footers in this draft, the only 7 footers i think are better will probably be drafted before pick 9 (oden and yi, although i still dont think yi is what we need, and dont buy into his hype of being so great). And finally, without any doubt hawes is THE BEST POST GAME PLAYER IN THE DRAFT, BETTER THAN EVEN ODEN.
I think having hawes right now, wouldnt make him a great star on our team, but when we need inside scoring it would be nice to send someone in, other than sweetney. I mean do you think sweetney is more athletic than hawes?? there have been several games that sweetney has come off the bench and actually been a huge contribution to the team (not this year really, but last year in the playoffs). I think hawes can contribute the same as sweetney at his best, right now.
By the age of 22, or his third year i am hping hawes would have added 30 or 40 lbs of muscle, though it still wouldnt make him the strongest, that should be good enough to play like pau gasol.
also, hawes has range on his jumpshot like pj brown (in his workouts he was easily able to extend to the nba 3 point line) can run the court fairly well and pass above average for a center (he played gaurd until he hit a growth spurt and became a 7 footer), and knows of his weaknesses and will definetly try to overcome them (being with the bulls, a franchise that pushes working hard and getting better, you can see hawes become stronger, and the bulls wont let him have sub par defense)
I think hawes is a great pick
the stiff thing
by Sambossanova on Jun 15, 2007 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions
That's my thing...
He's white, so be it. So was Pau Gasol; whom so many want. And he's not stiff. He's slow and can't jump--use those as the arguments, but he's not stiff. As you said, he's very fluid. For anyone to say Hawes is stiff means they haven't actually watched him play. And if they have, well, I guess I'll just have to "agree to disagree" on what we've seen.
Hawes is my nightmare pick
by theundergroundman on Jun 15, 2007 5:10 PM CDT reply actions
I never liked the idea
Seems the best evidence for Hawes is his top recruit status at C a year ago. Like he needs to go back to show what he can do without an illness excuse. Or even transfer if the team is holding him back. Then any comparison to Duncan or Gasol would be less ludicrous with >6reb/gm.
But if he gets picked at #9, it's the right move for him, no? Unless he never develops into the player he could've been....rumoured to happen to others before. Sac/Atl/Phi/Was...hey anyone could use a big man with upside, if willing to wait years...,I wonder where Hawes ends up, if not #9? Matt, as an experiment you could've passed on him, just to see.
Since maybe one other member (might?) agree with me, so it must mean I'm wrong, but if Paxson took Noah I'd be excited!
Though playing Wallace and TT with him could get funky. Plenty of Blocks and Transition/ TO's (for Bulls... and the opponent!).
Seriously, it is very possible to stop a post game. JO,Shaq,Gasol(zero post season wins),Cavs stiffs even did okay on Duncan ('tho he knew abusing them wasn't necessary?)...a team's strength can be turned into a dependancy to be used against them. Better to have more than one player with back to the basket capability, ala Detroit, methinks. Less predictable.
If Brewer, Horford, BWright, Yi, Conley are gone, I'm glad to get Noah at 9. Or Nick Young, who seems less a stretch/project even. Make a trade for Hawes 3 years from now with whomever he's been languishing. Just like JO, Curry, Chandler the change of scenery will make a (relative) star of him.
ooh, I wouldn't say nightmare pick
Maybe Noah will suck. Maybe he gives what BBen and TT do, and things they don't. Like made FTs and IQ.
I just see him getting minutes and producing, like now. And getting better thru hard work. Though the screams are a bit much. Kinda like a clown (non-threatening) version of KG with hair.
Made FTs?
Nick Young
by goldengod on Jun 15, 2007 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions
He appears to be the safest big guard
At 9 seems about 5 or 6 picks early, but someone on DraftExpress had the Bobcats taking him 8th. He's definitely climbed up recently.
Be realistic with Hawes here
by vlad001 on Jun 16, 2007 10:33 AM CDT reply actions
Great one-line analysis!
by NittanyBull on Jun 16, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
7 foot white lottery picks
by vlad001 on Jun 16, 2007 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
one is the reigning MVP
by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Jun 16, 2007 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Neither do most 7 foot black lottery picks.
by Repeat Threepeat on Jun 16, 2007 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Gasol is considered white.
Thanks for noticing.
by Repeat Threepeat on Jun 16, 2007 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Just trying to help you out, Princess.
You haven't seen hostile yet
by Repeat Threepeat on Jun 17, 2007 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions
I haven't seen hostile yet? Oh God no!
by NittanyBull on Jun 17, 2007 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Hardy har-har
by NittanyBull on Jun 17, 2007 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Hello
they do have a clear need
Hawes likely won't be effective enough to do that next season, but if he can even play a little (and if he's a total project I assume the Bulls will pass) the Bulls flat-out need big men in their rotation, as they have a lot of FAs.
Wright is an option too as getting a backup SF isn't that redundant considering Nocioni may be on his way out.
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 18, 2007 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I heard a rumor
it would
by your friendly BullsBlogger on Jun 19, 2007 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions

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