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Bulls not as good as they could be

Paxson to blame? (From my crappy site which no one reads so i figured i'd post it here.)

Star-divide

Maybe the Bulls aren't as good as some anticipated they would be this season, but at 1-5 after playing a fairly easy schedule, they certainly aren't this bad. Things won't get easier any time soon, as the Bulls start their annual circus road trip on Thursday at Phoenix.

The source of the Bulls struggles has been easy to identify- shooting. For a team without a true back-to-the-basket scorer, the Bulls get most of their baskets off of jump shots. So far, the team is shooting just 38 percent, better only than the Wizards, and good for the second worst mark in the NBA. Surely, shots for Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, and Andres Nocioni will begin to fall; that is a given. Skiles hinted that Nocioni could be added to the starting lineup at small forward, moving Deng to shooting guard, to help give the offense a boast as the road trip begins.

While poor shooting has caused a 1-5 record, it might be underlying a bigger, more long term problem: maybe this is roster isn't as good as people think it is. The Bulls core was mostly drafted in the top ten. Until now, Hinrich, Deng, and Gordon have been allowed to struggle because of their youth. But with Deng and Gordon now in their fourth season, and Hinrich in his fifth, maybe it's time to stop blaming inexperience. It's possible these guys just aren't that good. That can be said for veterans like Ben Wallace too, who has been a non-factor thus far.

It starts with John Paxson, who has gotten a pass locally, but has been criticized by the national media. The reason the Bulls never pulled the trigger on a trade for Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, or Kevin Garnett is because Paxson wanted to see what his young, homegrown crew could develop into. We might know now, and the results don't look very good.

While Paxson has done a phenomenal job of rescuing the Bulls from the doldrums of the league, where they stood when he took over as general manager in 2003, he has made a fair number of miscalculations. The most notable may be trading Tyson Chandler in order sign Ben Wallace to a long term deal. Chandler is eight years younger than Wallace and has taken off since arriving in New Orleans, even playing for Team USA over the summer. Still only 25, Chandler looks to be his way to Defensive Player of Year status, an award category Wallace used to own.

But the Chandler/Wallace debacle isn't Paxson's only mistake. Take JR Smith, for instance. Coming to the Bulls with PJ Brown in the Chandler trade, the Bulls refused to let Smith be a part of the roster. The 22-year old shooting guard was traded to Denver for multiple second round draft picks because Paxson thought Smith, known for being a malcontent from his day in New Orleans, would have a negative effect on his other young players. On Monday, Smith scored 29 points in under 24 minutes for the Nuggets, shooting 10-of-13 from the field and making 7-of-8 three pointers. The Bulls could surely use a scorer of Smith's ability right now.

One of the lone bright spots in the young season has been the play of Tyrus Thomas. Thomas has had two spectacular games thus far, and has shown signs that he my become an all-around tour de basketball force. But even the decision to acquire Thomas could be scrutinized. With the second selection in the 2006 draft, the Bulls took center LaMarcus Aldridge out of Texas. Aldridge was traded to the Portland Trailblazers minutes later for Thomas, Viktor Kryapha, and cash, so the Bulls could more easily sign their second first round pick, which ended up being Thabo Sephalosha. While Thomas is a fan favorite with unlimited upside, Aldridge is easily the more polished player at this point. After averaging 9 points and 5 rebounds per game as a rookie, Aldridge is averaging 19.6 points and 8 rebounds so far this season. He has emerged into a viable interior scoring option this season, something the Bulls need desperately.

It's not that the Bulls are a bad team or that John Paxson is an incompetent general manager. The Bulls will still end up with around 50 victories, but during a period when the Eastern Conference was their for the taking, Paxson may have messed up multiple times. While the Bulls are better then the way they have this season, maybe they aren't as good as they could have been.

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J.R. Smith and Aldridge would solve all the Bulls' problems if J.R. Smith knew how to play basketball, and Aldridge wasn't a big jump shooter who can't rebound.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 14, 2007 7:30 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

um
aldridge rebounds a rebound a game more than Thomas.  In more minutes yes but their per 40 is very similar.

by JSlakov on Nov 14, 2007 9:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Last year Thomas grabbed 15.9%
of the rebounds when he was on the floor, Aldridge only 13.9%.  That 2% difference may not seem like much, but it's the difference between being a barely averge rebounding PF and an above-average rebounding PF.  And it amounts to about a two rebound/40 min difference.  That same type of gap existed in college as well.  Don't draw conclusions on rebounding from a 6 or 7 game sample.    

by Scotter on Nov 14, 2007 10:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

quick question
has anybody looked at how team shooting percentage affects those rates?  I bet could close his eyes and hold out his hands and get 5-6 boards a game the way the bulls have been putting up bricks.  
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 14, 2007 10:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not
the guy said Aldridge can't rebound and thats not simply not true.  Plus we have Ben Wallace who is supposed to be able to compensate for that.  Anyone who thinks Aldridge wouldnt be a better fit for the Bulls right now isn't watch either team's games.

by JSlakov on Nov 14, 2007 10:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ben Wallace
isn't compensating for anything right now, and whoever the Bulls used a lottery pick on is hopefully on the team longer than Wallace.

But I'm not watching. You got me.

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 7:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

very similar
06-07
Thomas 11.1 TRB/40 15.9 REB-r
Aldridge 9 TRB/40 13.9 REB-r

07-08
Thomas (161 MP) 10.4 TRB/40 14.4 REB-r
Aldridge (238 MP) 9.4 TRB/40 13.4 REB-r

I wouldn't call the insignificant samples from this season similar, and it's likely Thomas will rebound more, and Aldridge will rebound less.

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 14, 2007 10:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that
still seems like an awful amount of rebounds for someone who "can't rebound"

just because Thomas is a better rebounder doesnt make him better and certainly doesnt make him better for this team.

by JSlakov on Nov 15, 2007 12:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

it's pretty important
Aldridge is 6'11". That doesn't change the numbers, but I can't say I would be pleased with a real big rebounding at at a low rate.

Plus Aldridge isn't a low post scorer. The Bulls don't need another shooter.

Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 7:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

honestly
how many Trail Blazers games have you watched this year?  He's not a low post scorer because he faces up and shoots?  Can you name a single "low post scorer" in the league if that disqualifies him.  I'll give you Shaq.  Yao, Jermaine O'Neal, Garnett, Gasol, all those guys do that.  Also, Aldridge does have a hook shot and he does some work cleaning up inside as well, so I think you're just wrong.

by JSlakov on Nov 15, 2007 12:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

all those guys
can post up, Aldridge doesn't.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 1:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

well
if you're just going to say things that aren't true then I don't see the point in continuing this

by JSlakov on Nov 15, 2007 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

good idea
Aldridge does post up, I've seen it. I've only watched him opening night against Duncan, but he did it then (and with decent success).

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 1:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh
I won't testify that he posts up 'often', or enough to diversify the Bulls offense. Skiles would keep him outside for 'spacing' anyway.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 15, 2007 1:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that's what I meant
He doesn't post up. The Bulls couldn't toss him the ball and expect him to back down another big on a regular basis.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 1:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're never wrong.
Just misinterpreted.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Nov 15, 2007 1:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I know I wasn't clear
and I've only seen the guy play like 8 times. I wasn't witness to Aldridge aiming his ass at the basket and backing down any decent defenders, and his shot chart from last season was eerily similar to Joe Smith's - who can also post up, but isn't the post up answer. If anyone wants to know what they're missing, he's already on the team.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 2:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Aldridge ate Ben Wallace alive
deep in the low post late last season. I specifically remember thinking to myself how well Wallace contested the shot and how easily Aldridge finished (on the right block, spinning to his right for a baseline turnaround). Anyway, don't take my anecdotal evidence. His post-up moves are well-documented. "Early in the fourth quarter, Wallace posted Aldridge, spun and scored. On the ensuing possession, Aldridge made the same exact move and scored over Wallace." http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-28-288/Dallas--Detroit--Memphis--New-Orleans.html ;
http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/

By contrast, Tyrus Thomas' post moves are not quite as well documented. Because no one has ever seen them.

Aldridge may well end up having the long range post game that Joe Smith has. But he's extremely well polished on the low block for a 2nd year player.

I thought the Bulls were back... turns out they're just a back end...

by bullhockey on Nov 15, 2007 2:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's just wrong
Tyrus has a hook shoot from both sides.  I was especially impressed with his left handed hook, which iirc he dropped on Rasheed (and I am not talking about the drive and layup he shot behind his head.)  Tyrus has post moves, but he doesn't get the ball in the post very much.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 2:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

now I'm pissed
I was so steadfast with my Aldridge remark. I should have just gone with the jump shot percentage, and stuck to rebounds.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 15, 2007 2:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you know what's going to be great?
when miles comes through here and replies to each one of these comments and we get the full pyramid effect.

Seriously though, Bullhockey do you watch the games?  You've never seen Tyrus post up?

Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 15, 2007 3:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I do in fact watch the games
and I have in fact seen TT post up. It's called hyperbole, and I'll never use it on here again (wink, wink).
I thought the Bulls were back... turns out they're just a back end...

by bullhockey on Nov 15, 2007 3:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

once again
he can and does.  I've watched almost every game he's played this year.

by JSlakov on Nov 15, 2007 2:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There might be a reason why
nobody reads you're stuff.  Try coming up with some new ideas and stop rehashing old ones that are wrong.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 14, 2007 7:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Ouch
Nice reception for the new guy.  Keep working on your chops Rick and don't take the criticism personally.
My favorite metric of a team's quality is the often underappreciated "win/loss record"

by preverbal on Nov 14, 2007 8:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

You're right
that was a little bit more harsh than I meant to be, but those talking points have been discussed ad nauseum around here and they are tired.
Nocioni-Khryapa in '08

by bullshooter on Nov 14, 2007 8:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Losing JR Smith
wasn't the problem.  It was the fact we traded him for basically nothing.  There was a reason the guy was benched during the playoffs - I don't want him on the team.  But we could have at least gotten something worthwhile.

by Jaina on Nov 14, 2007 8:34 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

2nd round draft picks
I can't imagine Smith going for more than that.
Officially a hater on Ballhype!

by hscs on Nov 14, 2007 9:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

heh, true
but Pax was 'rushed' to pawn him off because he had to get under the cap and sign A-Drain. So who knows how much he could've held out for? Three 2nd rounders?

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Nov 14, 2007 9:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he should have.
And then he wouldn't have signed A-Drain.
Let us prepare for glory! --Michael Redd

by tyger1147 on Nov 15, 2007 1:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And Eisley
maybe you're right.. but I thought we could have done SOMETHING better, but I don't know what..

by Jaina on Nov 14, 2007 9:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heeee's a Riiiick...House.
Mighty mighty, just lettin' it all hang out.

(Sorry.)

SUCK IT SABAN!

by 1958ChiTown on Nov 14, 2007 10:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

This has to be the worst time to be a Bulls fan.
We are talking about J.R. Smith. Skiles and Smith in the same room together now thats funny!
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."

by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on Nov 14, 2007 11:03 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I feel like I'm the only one
that isn't phased by this upcoming road trip.

by Option27 on Nov 15, 2007 10:16 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

JR Smith is like kryptonite
for a team built on good attitude and team chemistry. Look at who picked him up:  an overrated coach who previously chose to have Anthony Mason join a team with Glenn Robinson. He's also the guy who chose to go to a team with Kenyon Martin and then brought in Allen Iverson.

There's nothing inherently wrong with George Karl's approach. But what the Bulls needed was a unified building plan that would mobilize the fan base. Paxson's vision was for a team of gym rats with great attitudes.

Smith has already taken a very negative toll on the Nuggets being suspended twice and on the verge of being waived. The jury is out as to whether he'll be able to rehab his image like Iverson or be out of the league like JR Rider.

I thought the Bulls were back... turns out they're just a back end...

by bullhockey on Nov 15, 2007 10:28 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Paxson misses three point attempt for championship
I agree with Rick's skepticism about Bulls mgmt. hesitating to make a deal.  KG was traded for Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, a 2009 first round draft pick (top three protected).  The Bulls could have topped that deal:  Deng, Noah, Noc, Kirk etc etc.  And now no trade for Kobe? Kirk and Deng are off limits?  

Good daily herald article on Kirk (no link, u want it go get it) who i think is the weak spot in our lineup.  Article talks about how he is not a true PG  and he doesn't eeven embrace the role of being a PG who pound the ball up the floor.  I guess I always thought he was trying to push the offense and just sucked, now i realize he sucks intentionally...

I think Pax is just waiting until Dec. to make a trade for Kobe or somebody.  Maybe, hopefully... an all-star.  is that too much to ask?  I think BG and Thomas have the most potential.  everybody else should be on the block.  

by Zac23 on Nov 15, 2007 12:05 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but remember what a genius
Micky Arison looked like when he got Shaq? It worked in the short term, but Miami is miserable right now. There's such a thing as mortgaging your future for a championship today, and people like Arison and now Ainge could write a textbook on it. Celtics fans can't be happy about salary cap implications of the Garnett deal.
I thought the Bulls were back... turns out they're just a back end...

by bullhockey on Nov 15, 2007 12:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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