Draft analysis: results by draft position

This was submitted to me by longtime reader 'REB'. Good timing too, since I really don't feel like writing about more losses.  -Matt

 

Since everyone was talking about trades and our draft picks I did a little research into the recent drafts.  The Knicks probably can?t play bad enough to drop below Atlanta & Charlotte and if they don?t turn around significantly, they will finish in a pack with Portland, Toronto, Sacramento, Houston and Boston.  Let?s say they finish 3, 4 or 5.

 

I looked at drafts 1998 ? 2003.  It?s a little soon to rate 2004 & 2005 so I left them out.

 

 

3rd Pick

4th Pick

5th Pick

Best 6-9

Worst 6-9

1998

R LaFrentz

Antawn Jamison

Vince Carter

Dirk Nowitzki

Robert Traylor

1999

Baron Davis

Lamar Odom

Jon. Bender

Richard Hamilton

Wally Szczerbiak

2000

Darius Miles

Marcus Fizer

Mike Miller

Crawford or Przybilla

DeMarr Johnson

2001

Pau Gasol

Eddy Curry

Jason Richardson

Shane Battier

Rodney White

2002

Mike Dunleavy

Ben Gooden

N. Tskitishvili

Amare Stoudemire

Dajuan Wagner

2003

Carmelo Anthony

Chris Bosh

Dwane Wade

Kirk Hinrich

Mike Sweetney

 

Out of 42 total players there were:

  • 6 All Stars (Stoudemire, Gasol , Anthony, Wade, Nowitzki, Carter) Bosh may be here in a couple of years.

  • 5 Stars (Richardson, Bosh, Davis, Hamilton, Jamison(?))

  • 8 Busts (Fizer, Johnson, Diop, White, Tskitshvili, Wagner, Bender, Traylor)
    Note 4 High Schoolers - Johnson, Diop, Bender & Tskitshvili (18 yrs old)

 Of the 11 top picks, in 3 years the best player was taken after the 5th pick  ( Stoudemire(9), Nowitzki(9), Hamilton(7)). There?s some dogs on the list, but most of the 42 drafted 3 through 9 have turned out to be productive players.

 

Unfortunately the experts consider this years draft more like 2000?s than 2003?s.  John Paxson is considered to be a conservative picker because all his picks have been players from established college programs.  It?s assumed  he will go for the sure double rather than the less sure home run. I don?t buy that.  I do think he places a great deal of importance on whether he and the scouts see the player being  able to adapt to the NBA game, both on and off the floor.  I don?t know who I would want at #3 because I haven?t seen that much. I expect we will be lucky to get anyone who makes a significant impact his rookie year.   

  

Now for the Bulls own pick I?m going to assume they will end up making the playoffs [ed note: This was sent before the weekend -Matt]. That would put them at picks 15,16 or 17. Here?s the recent history for picks 15 through 21:

 

Draft Year

15th Pick

16th Pick

17th Pick

Best 18-21

Worst 18-21

1998

Matt Harpring

Bryce Drew

Rad. Nestrovic

Ricky Davis

Mirsad Turckan

1999

Fred. Weis

Ron Artest

Cal Bowdler

Jeff Foster

Dion Glover

2000

Jason Collier

Hedu Turkoglu

Desmond Mason

Jamal Magloire

Speedy Claxton

2001

Steven Hunter

Kirk Haston

Mike Bradley

Zach Randolph

Joseph Forte

2002

Bost. Nachbar

Jiri Welsch

Juan Dixon

Kareem Rush

Curtis Borchardt

2003

Reese Gaines

Troy Bell

Z. Cabarkapa

David West or Boris Diaw

Dahntay Jones

 

Out of 42 Players:

  • No All Stars   

  • 2 Stars ( Zach Randolph, Ron Artest )

  • 12 Starters (Harpring, Nestrovic, Davis, Foster, Turkoglu, Desmond Mason, Jamal Magliore. Morris Peterson, Brendan Haywood, Juan Dixon, David West, Boris Diaw)

  • 17 Busts (Drew, Turckan, Weiz, Bowdler, Quincy Lewis, Dion Glover, Hunter, Haston, Bradley, Forte, Nachbar, Borchardt, Humphrey, Gaines, Bell, Cabarkapa, Jones )

You can see that not only is there less talent after the lottery but also a lot of guessing as to who will pan out.  Zach Randolph was taken after Hunter, Haston, Bradley, and Jason Collins. Of course there was talk that Randolph was a problem and that Tom Izzo told him to go pro because he didn?t want him back. There was talk about Artest being a head case too. Fortunately we now know that was not true.

 

Given the perceived quality of this years draft class, it?s doubtful that the Bulls can expect to get any immediate help from this pick.   The best we can hope for is a big guard like Maurice Ager or Rudy Fernandez.  Interestingly, I looked at the rookie seasons for all 42 of these picks and the 2 players who were the biggest contributors in their first seasons were Ron Artest (31.1 MPG, 12.0 Pts, 4.3 Reb)  & Morris Peterson (22.6 Min, 9.3 Pts, 3.2 Reb).   Most of the others played very little their first year.

 

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