why it's ok for NY to not suck too much...

by micah on Feb 16, 2006 1:22 AM CST

I've been curious about this before... but just decided to look at the past 10 years of draft order and prior season record...

Draft    #1 drafting team    prior season record rank (1=worst)
1996    Philadelphia    1
1997    San Antonio    3
1998    LA Clippers    3
1999    Chicago    3
2000 New Jersey    7
2001 Washington    3
2002 Houston    5
2003    Cleveland    1
2004    Orlando    1
2005    Milwaukee    6

On average the third worst record has gotten the 1 pick over the past ten years and it has been surprisingly rare for the worst team to get the best pick... so I guess... continue to stink it up NY... just don't do it too bad.

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Don't see many 2nd worst records....

Knicks won last night.

by joejoeEnglish94bulls4ever on Feb 16, 2006 6:52 AM CST reply actions

Don't fall for this nonsense

If you flip a coin 10 times, and it comes up heads ALL 10 times, what are the odds it will come up tails on the next flip? The answer is 1:1, or 50%.

Don't be fooled by history. Worst team in the league gets the most ping-pong balls. Period. So KEEP LOSING, KNICKS!

by Todd Lerner @ Blog a Bull on Feb 16, 2006 12:53 PM CST reply actions

no shit...

the point isn't that having NY finish anything other than last statistically increases the Bulls advantage... it's just that over the past ten years (~half the time the league has used a lottery system) the worst team got the best pick only 30% of the time. It's not a prediction on the upcoming lottery, but more of a result based (and of course quick) look at the degree of advantage finishing last gives a team in a multivariable system (i.e. unlike the coin flip probability example). Such that if the degree of advantage were greater than the past ten years implies, you would find more #1's in that table, and of course if it were lesser you would find fewer.

Anyway... the "just don't do it too bad" bit was sort of a joke... I think everyone here agrees that it would be best for NY to finish 0-30.

by micah on Feb 16, 2006 3:32 PM CST up reply actions