Moving forward

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 7, 2006 9:06 PM CST in News

(once you read the post, you'll realize the pun-errific genius of that headline)

Like I said after the Boston game, blowing out bad teams is not insignificant. It's the sign of a good team, especially if it's being done consistently.

The win against Philly on Wednesday was in hand by the time the first quarter ended. Even in a game where Hinrich couldn't stop fouling and getting himself benched (maybe next time they can put Duhon on Iverson so HE can get the quick fouls?) the rest of the team had no problem picking up the offensive slack. Ben Gordon had the best night in that game, but during the whole streak it's been the Bulls two starting forwards, Andres Nocioni and Luol Deng, who have been carrying the load. And of course instead of just being content with a few good games where they're both contributing, there's hand-wringing over their futures with the team, both on this site and elsewhere:

A question is starting to linger in the minds of many Bulls fans however, with Andres' recent success it will only drive up his price once he becomes a free agent this summer. Will John Paxson and the Bulls pay up?

What makes the situation not so cut and dry is that the Bulls have two players to play the small forward position. While Nocioni has been starting as a Power Forward during the win streak, his natural position is at the Small Forward spot. A spot currently held by Bulls' leading scorer Luol Deng. It would be a complete shock to not see Luol play the better part of his career in a Bulls' uniform and so then the question remains how much money is left over for Nocioni.

I have got to think that if Nocioni keeps up with his current pace, the Bulls are going to have to make an offer similar to what Hinrich signed for last summer.

I doubt the Bulls are going to pay Nocioni the ~$10m per they're paying Hinrich, unless he's the starting power forward on what they feel is their title team. To me there is no longer a debate at the three, Luol Deng has been the Bulls best player this season and will hopefully be the starter for the next 10 years. But I've been saying for a while that the four is Noc's best position anyway, and since his insertion at that spot in the starting lineup (and since playing the weaker competition, admittedly) he has proved to be more than capable there.

So why the worry in signing him? Right now I still think that on a title contending team, Noc is a very good and versatile bench player who can play the 3 or the 4. That has value, but even factoring in the extra credit you may want to assign him for 'heart', 'hustle', and other cliches, it's more of a 'mid-level-exemption' value. But if Noc continues to improve and becomes a unique but effective power forward to the point where the Bulls are a contending team, then I'm sure the Bulls would be happy to sign him for the $10m. But while they're playing good now, a Deng-Noc-Wallace frontcourt doesn't seem like it'll be enough for a title run.

If the Bulls, and Nocioni in particular have shown anything, it's the ability to improve. So I'm fine letting these next few months decide whether he can ascend his game to that level. Or at least help his trade value towards getting a star who will.

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Comments

I guess you have to MOVE

one of those guys for salary cap reasons. Glad I dont have to make that decision! Get some value while the stock is high.

by DannyRange on Dec 7, 2006 9:26 PM CST reply actions

well you don't

if Noc makes like $6-$7m. Or if he's the starting four and they're ok with that.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 7, 2006 9:29 PM CST up reply actions

I'm less

and less ok with Nocioni starting at power forward beyond this season. He's too small even in a smaller NBA, he doesn't block shots, and with a career rebounds per 40 under 9 it's tough to justify giving him a large contract or keeping him as a starter when better options (Thomas next year or a trade) are available.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 7, 2006 10:13 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed

I might rather have someone more prototypical like an Etan Thomas type of guy, though at some point I think the Bulls need to get a center and move Ben to the 4. Oden solves all our problems at once.

Eliminates the need for Noce, Ben doesn't have to guard shaq or other true centers and gives us a dependable scorer all while maintaining a great defensive front. Please Paxson trade Noce for the pick if we don't get it. I love him, but he's pretty much at his ceiling right now, right at the perfect time to trade him, I think.

Hinrich, Deng, Wallace for All-Star 2007!!!!!

by cubbybear on Dec 8, 2006 1:02 AM CST up reply actions

Oden

EVen if we do land Oden, which is somewhat of a long shot, you guys think he will be able to start as a rookie for a team like the bulls? I dont know if he is that ready.

by Sambossanova on Dec 8, 2006 1:08 AM CST up reply actions

That's my biggest problem

with even a mention of the guy's name. I haven't even seen the guy play yet, but franchise savior or not, he may have nothing to offer in year one, two, three, etc. I don't really get the excitement over the longshot of getting the type of player that takes the longest to develop.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 8, 2006 1:17 AM CST up reply actions

I guess...

I just think more of Noc than many people here, and I don't think he has hit ceiling by any means. He is averaging 15.7 for the year, but over 20 for the last week or two. That tells me right there that he is improving. Like most Bulls, it took him a while to settle in this year, but now he is looking like he can be a 18-19 point scorer in this league. He can beat you in many ways (w his ability to drain threes and get to the hoop) With his toughness, he can guard bigger fours. I like him in the 4 slot.

I would not trade him.

The red and white

by Scott 9 on Dec 8, 2006 10:27 AM CST up reply actions

STOP STOP

Can everyone stop this Oden talk, its way more than a longshot and doesn't add anything to conversation as the Bulls can't plan anything based on getting Oden. Its just plain pointless.

all they can hope for is lottery pick which will be vaulabe for trade or a player that could be impact

by NY Chicago Fan on Dec 8, 2006 4:02 PM CST up reply actions

Rebounds

True; At the three Nocioni is a tremendous rebounder, at the four that advantage is mitigated.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 8, 2006 10:30 AM CST up reply actions

3 or 4

It's not whether he's playing the 3 or 4 but who he's playing alongside. With a front court of Wallace, Deng & Nocioni we have no height and you see teams like Cleveland and Dallas playing volleyball with the rebounds. As long as Wallace is the 5 we will suffer without a tall power forward. Of course, at the other end there are few 4's who can handle Nocioni's ability to both drive and hit the 3.
To be Eastern Conference Champion the Bulls will have to get by either Cleveland or Detroit both of whom will give the current Bull's lineup trouble. I'm not saying Miami & New Jersey can't win, they can. They just don't pose the same rebounding problem.

Ye OldeBull

by OldeBull on Dec 8, 2006 10:59 AM CST up reply actions

Oden

OK, I have seen Oden play. He WILL make an impact in his FIRST year in the league. The man is 7'1 who rebounds and blocks shots. Sure his offense might take a year or two to develope into something worth raving about, but the simple fact that he plays defense and blocks shots will make him a force in the L in the '07-'08 season. Yes that is next year, he come out. Would have if high schooler's could still do so and will be the #1 pick no doubt about it. One more thing, Oden is no long shot. Real deal, believe the hype cuz it's for real. Rookie of the Year in '08.

by GameTimeBaby12 on Dec 8, 2006 4:08 AM CST reply actions

long shot

long shot 'cuz' it's no guarantee to get the #1 overall pick. sheesh.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 8, 2006 7:43 AM CST up reply actions

Oden is real...

The reason he's gotten so much hype is because he's been "NBA ready". He was supposed to be the big man's lebron, which is nearly 100% unheard of. A centerpiece for a champion? Of course not. Good enough to start on ANY team in the NBA next year? Maybe. But definitely half of them. And maybe more.

The problem is that who ever gets teh #1 pick will take him, no if's, and's or but's about it. No trade will get him.

Get this: In his first game back in which his dominant right hand he had surgery on was still not 100%, in 23 minutes off the bench, he had 14 points, 10 reb and 5 blocks.

The other thing is, although everyone obviously expects him to come out in the draft, he's actually said he enjoys college and might come back next year if all his teammates do, too.

Anyway, I'm sold on the guy. If he came out, and the Bulls lucked into the first pick of the '07 draft, I, right here and now, predict they will at minimum win 4 championships by 2020, a la Tim Duncan. (all this is predicated on the fact that he's under 30 years old.)

by tyger1147 on Dec 8, 2006 10:23 AM CST reply actions

oden

also had a tremendous amount of turnovers

by Sambossanova on Dec 8, 2006 10:30 AM CST up reply actions

salary cap discussion

it all depends on where the franchrise wants to go. we have the ability to go into luxary tax danger zone and get gorodn, deng, noch, all to long term ocntracts and hope t2 turns into a starting 4 and thabo turns into a nice player making the 8 player rotation of wallace, deng, hinrich, gordon, noch, du, t2, and thabo. However, with that line up if t2 doesnt develop well, my fear is we would be going into salary cap hell to make a team that gets bounced in the conference finals every year....

I love noch, and i fully trust pax, but my feeling is that noch (along with the knicks pick and someone else...not t2 bc the team loves him too much...maybe gordon) will be packaged to get a superstar....deng and t2 have too much potential, hinrich and wallace are cornerstones. That leaves gordon and noch.

I love everyone on this team, and I hate to see anyone leave; but if you have to do it to get KG (i dont want O'neil, Ray Allen, AI, or anyone else, KG and only KG) you have to do what it takes ot make a championship franchrise

by milesgmsu on Dec 8, 2006 12:10 PM CST reply actions

Kg...

Why do we need KG? The last thing we need is to sign another aging/past his prime guy to a huge contract that eats up salary space. Why not stick with the guys we have a watch them develop?

Ben Gordon = Trade Bait

by raalickeller on Dec 8, 2006 12:21 PM CST up reply actions

Someone help me

out here. I was under the impression that the purpose for having such a deep line-up this season was because we have such a balanced roster...we play with such intensity, it makes sense to be constantly rotating guys in on a nightly basis...

So then why (on this team) is such an emphasis put on who is a 'starter?' Gordon is top three in scoring every night coming off the bench... We know that we're going to have a bunch of bench points every night because that constant rotation allows us to keep guys fresh throughout the game, right?

I understand the concept of settling down a rotation, and a starting line-up, but why can't they organize their rosters like a baseball team (choosing the best players/matchups every night for every team)?

Personally, I feel that whether Nocioni is deemed a 'starter', 'role-player', '6th or 7th man'...he still deserves a good contract (6-7 million), as he's too dangerous an offensive weapon not to.

The Bulls have advocated 'team basketball' from day one. What would be more unselfish than to take a sub-superstar contract for the good of the team?

I'm probably just completely naive to assume he'd do that...but I can dream, can't I?

Ben Gordon = Trade Bait

by raalickeller on Dec 8, 2006 12:18 PM CST reply actions

Hooray, baseball!

While baseball rosters can be made out to take advantage of matchups (the best players still seem to stay on the field despite statistical disadvantages), winning in basketball is based on playing the best players and adjusting from there. There is very little room for adjustment in baseball (no one can be substituted back in, 7 out of 9 players rarely break a sweat), and the matchups and mismatches are always changing during a basketball game. A basketball team's most effective lineup is always going to be its best players, whether that's defined by who plays best together or who is the most talented. That's one of the reasons the Bulls have been winning with a short, low-rebounding, flopper at power forward.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 8, 2006 12:37 PM CST up reply actions

turning forward

Noc is a Paxson/Skiles kid of player. I really don't see them letting him go. I think the Bulls are actually content with this line up until Thomas and whomever they use next years pick on develop. The Bulls are in a great position that most NBA teams dream of. They have a great young core that can develop and blossom for years to come into an elite team.

If you package anyone in a trade for someone like Garnett, after his contract and Wallace's contracts are up, they're back to having nothing. IF you keep Nocioni and Thomas and whomever they get next year, they'll be fine. It will allow them to play with a better set rotation while the young guys develop and by the time they DO develop, our forwards could be allowed to move on.

The only player I think the Bulls should trade is Ben Gordon, just cause he just doesn't fit . . . to me at least. I think the Bulls will like to get bigger, but at the 2 guard position. And a more consistant scorer. IF someone like Jason Richardson becomes available, I would be content in trading Gordon and next year's pick (top 3) protected along with salary dumps.

Nocioni and Deng are double/double threats every night. That's fine for a front line, if Wallace ever decides to go back to form.

by Option27 on Dec 8, 2006 1:22 PM CST reply actions

Double-Doubles

Nocioni career total: 19 in 181 games played

Deng career total: 17 in 157 games played

I'm not advocating getting rid of Nocioni, just removing him from the starting lineup to back up Deng at small forward and whoever the power forward of the future is next year. The Noc is an adequate stop-gap at the position right now, but like most of the blogabull readership's girlfriends, they can do better.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 8, 2006 1:46 PM CST up reply actions

I would say

a lot of those games are from earliar in their career...when they didnt get enough time, and havent been as developed as they are now. I still stand on thinking they're double/double threats each night. I don't think they'll average a double double or anything but I just feel that each night lately, they're either getting one or 1 or 2 rebounds away from one.

by Option27 on Dec 8, 2006 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

100% agree

If Bulls could get a real PF (rebounder, shot blocker, at least a tiny post game) and use Noc off the bench at 3&4 they would have a much stronger team.

But of course its the question of how you get that 1 more impact player. Ty2? Draft Pick? Trade where you have to give up something?

by NY Chicago Fan on Dec 8, 2006 4:22 PM CST up reply actions

Market Value

Market value is the key. Other teams clearly admire Nocioni and would probably like to have him. But, I think he comes across to the rest of the league like a very competent role player. Their fan bases would not be overwhelmingly excited about bringing him in for big cash. It's possible the Bulls play it coy and wait to see what kind of offers he receives. I don't think he'll be getting the kind of offers Kirk would have (or Deng or Gordon will get, for that matter). Chapu has said he wants to be a bull for his career, and he will be paid nicely for that. But no one is going to give him a max contract or anything. It would be too much of a gamble for most teams who would have to wonder if he just fits in really well on Chicago. There are plenty of Bobby Simmons and Nene Hilario and others who obtain regretable contracts, though, so you never know who will pony up an offer.

Deng 4 MVP, 2008!

by corey williams corey benjamin on Dec 8, 2006 2:08 PM CST reply actions

Is it just me?

I have this funny feeling that the relationship Noc has with Loul is going to affect the signing. The fact that they've grown so close and live next door to each other and Nocioni and Deng are foreigners. I think they'll want to stay together and work it out some how.

by Option27 on Dec 8, 2006 2:50 PM CST up reply actions

lets put the contracts in argentine pesos

deng's one year at duke probably taught him enough about econ so that we couldn't get his contract cheap ;-)

by milesgmsu on Dec 8, 2006 4:24 PM CST up reply actions

Are they going to

get married and share a bank account?

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 8, 2006 4:34 PM CST up reply actions

my commentary

Is it me or does every future free agent say I want to remain a (insert team name)for the rest of my career?

Frankly, I think that we need someone over 6 10 who can be a potential starter. This year it is not as important, but when PJ Brown is gone, we will have about as short of a front line as you can possibly have. Unles i forget what his name is (the lithuanian center we got from the cavs) or Luke become big time ballers we are screwed.

I would trade for Gasol not Garnett, mostly because it is cheaper and you p[robably wouldnt have to give up as much.

by Sambossanova on Dec 8, 2006 4:16 PM CST reply actions

2 things

one we don't have the rights to schenser anymore

two; gasol was the other guy i would take (caveat being after seeing him come back from injury) along with KG

by milesgmsu on Dec 8, 2006 4:26 PM CST up reply actions

Trade?

Seems like it would be best to trade Noc. As much as I like him keeping him past this year means a long term commitment to him at the 4 or to him accepting role player/bench player cash. I'd love for the latter to happen but I doubt it will.

by theundergroundman on Dec 8, 2006 9:16 PM CST reply actions