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Around SBN: More Televised Winter Baseball, Please

My inspired-by-Christmas-spirit Kevin Garnett post. (complete with unexpected Ben Gordon love?)

I had an epiphany last week.

Of course it wasn't about anything truly important, and instead centered around the Bulls next move in their progression from 'good team in the East' to 'championship contender'.....so naturally it involved trading for Kevin Garnett. But this new revelation wasn't about Garnett, but about a Bull: I'm starting to think Ben Gordon won't (and shouldn't) be a part of any such trade.

His constant involvement in trade rumors does imply that he is highly valued around the league. But Gordon's performance this season has me better appreciating his value as a Bull. He's having his best season, being more aggressive in his possessions (increase in usage rate) while still maintaining his shooting percentage. And the best news is that he is getting to the line more, up to 7.7 FTAs per 40 minutes  from 4.3 the season before. For Gordon it is especially beneficial as he's shooting over 87% from the line. When he attacks the basket like that, not only is he getting free points at the line, but it causes defenders to give him room to shoot the 3, which has been not falling as much this season but will likely come back up near his career norms. His defense has also looked improved, and it seems there are fewer games this season where Skiles yanks him for lapses on that end.

Speaking of Skiles, He's still not starting Gordon, and more importantly not giving him enough minutes. It's almost as if his recent performance has hurt his standing in the rotation. [Now that he's playing better....well it must be because he's more comfortable off the bench!] Thinking like that seems more superstition than any conclusive correlation, but if Skiles still insists on starting Chris Duhon at least have Gordon get the starters bulk of the minutes. Sure they'll still have a 'small' backcourt with him and Hinrich, but Duhon's even shorter and I'd rather have the newly aggressive Ben Gordon getting heavy minutes than any other guard on the team.

***

So back to Garnett, which I promise is only brought up because the Bulls are playing the Wolves tonight  (I think I've been pretty good in terms of not bringing up Garnett trade fantasies too often, all things considered). The failure to acquire Allen Iverson was the final blown chance to pair Garnett with another superstar...as there will never be another player that good who is available for that cheap (and it can be said that the Wolves have so few tradeable assets that they'd need someone even cheaper). Garnett himself has voiced displeasure over management's failure, and while he could wait another full season to opt-out of his contract, the upcoming draft may have the Wolves thinking that the time to deal Garnett is now. I won't go into too much why Garnett is a near-perfect fit, but there are aspects of his production, position, and attitude that make him a final-piece type acquisition. What makes the trade even more desirable is that the Bulls are a perfect trading partner:

  • All the Bulls expiring contracts are big men. So in any deal for a shooting guard (such as Paul Pierce or Ray Allen) they'd risk depleting their front line. But when dealing for Garnett that issue is mitigated.
     
  • If the Wolves trade Garnett, they will almost have to get a '07 lottery pick in return. The inherent problem with accepting a team's pick is that if that team is getting Garnett you'd almost have to pencil them into the playoffs. However since the Bulls can offer the Knick's pick, that is a much safer bet for plenty of lottery balls (furthermore, by dealing Garnett the Wolves have a better chance at keeping their own pick which they'd owe to the Clippers if not in the top-10)
     
  • The best combination of salary cap relief and young talent, as has been discussed in this interwebspace plenty of times.

But the point of this post is that when considering which young talent to give up,  further Garnett trade scenarios  from me will no longer have Ben Gordon, for both his improved play and the revelation (through the Iverson non-acquisition) that the Wolves really like Randy Foye, a similar player. If I were to now rate the core assets on the Bulls, in terms of which I'd more easily trade away in a Garnett deal, Gordon is now only less 'untouchable' than Deng or Hinrich.

So here's my (latest) best shot in a Garnett trade. The Bulls parting with the expiring deals of Sweetney and Brown, young talent in Tyrus Thomas and Chris Duhon, Andres Nocioni (could be thought of as either an expiring deal or someone Minny would want to build around), and the Knicks first-rounder (officially it'll probably be called 'future first round pick' since the Bulls do not technically own that pick yet). Some more notes to the deal:

  • In this scenario the Bulls offer cap relief in taking on Marko Jaric's deal (also why Duhon was included), but Minnesota could reasonably substitute similarly-overpaid guards like Troy Hudson or Mike James. I think Jaric would be the best fit of the three, but his deal also runs the longest.
  • If they wanted to offer further (or less, if they don't have to take a guard) cap relief, the Bulls could take on Mark Madsen and the 3 more seasons he's getting paid.
  • To help alleviate Minnesota's roster crunch, Bracey Wright can be included, since minimum-salaried players can be included without cap consequences.

Garnett's salary means that any deal would hurt the Bulls roster depth (although there's still some quality bench players left)  But when thinking of that, or whether it's too early to give up Ty Thomas, or that you can't pass at a shot in the '07 draft, or that Nocioni is the heart and soul of the franchise (ok, I never think that)...all I can see is a starting front line of Deng, Garnett, and Wallace. Still seeing Kirk Hinrich as the starting point guard. And a new wrinkle to my KG dream: Ben Gordon remaining a Bull.

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Maybe it's just me
but I'm not a big fan of that trade.  I don't mind giving up Ty, Noc, and the Knick's pick, but I think we should be able to get something better than just Jaric as a throw-in, salary cap eater for the next three years.
"all the girls loved BJ." -sue369

by Colossus @ Blog a Bull on Dec 26, 2006 8:12 PM CST reply actions  

Jaric can play
he's just overpaid. Plus he'd be a 'big' guard, which would be a plus.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 26, 2006 8:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Why would MN
trade KG? He is their team. I have not heard or read that he has asked to be traded. I read that his wife loves Minneapolis and is happy there.
Thabo....the accent is sweet!!

by sue369 on Dec 26, 2006 9:46 PM CST reply actions  

their team won't win with or without him
so...either they deal him now and try to luck into Oden...or they stick in mediocrity.

I think McHale should've been been more aggressive in getting some other 'star' that's been cast off (hell, I even advocated trying to get Marbury back) but I think he has to pick one way or the other. And actually...he'll just be fired so someone else can do the messy work of trading KG.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 26, 2006 10:46 PM CST up reply actions  

I like this trade
Paired with KG's inside presence, Gordon's game becomes so much more dangerous, and you finally get rid of the Duhon vacuum taking away from Gordon's minutes...  especially after a game like this one against the Timberwolves.

KG and Ben Wallace, without saying, gives you a ferocious defensive cushion that can cover for any "defensive liabilities" mentioned ad nauseum about Gordon...

I go back and forth with keeping the core intact and going for the superstar, but I feel more and more that if we ever get a chance, we need to pull the trigger to get KG.  We're too inconsistent as a perimeter oriented team.  He's getting up there in age, but he is still too good NOT to go after.

Now if I could only believe that slim chance that the Timberwolves will actually make him available in the near future...

by Bullschicago on Dec 27, 2006 12:42 AM CST reply actions  

Deng actually
scores more points closer to the basket than KG, if you're worried about a perimeter stigma Garnett isn't the solution.

I'm not sure any team can offer as much as the Bulls, why give away Thomas and the Knicks' pick?

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 27, 2006 9:40 AM CST up reply actions  

yeabut
whether he's more perimeter oriented now or not, if you throw the ball to Garnett he forces double-teams.

I can see the Bulls not having to include Thomas....but I doubt Minny even bothers trading KG without getting an '07 pick. I wouldn't be surprised though if Minnesota was less concerned with cap flexibility they could get far better realized talent somewhere else though besides the Bulls.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 27, 2006 9:48 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree on the double-teams,
just hate the scent of the mythical low-post threat. At least the MTGWCDaS wasn't totally extinct.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 27, 2006 9:54 AM CST up reply actions  

Good post, Matt
Get McHale on the phone!

How bad would it suck though if the Knicks landed the #1 pick? We'd be potentially giving up the NEXT Garnett for a 30-year-old one, not to mention a third of our roster.

by Mike Aparicio on Dec 27, 2006 10:03 AM CST reply actions  

Any trades for Pau would be fabulous as well
Ha, ha, as if I even had the right to choose which star would come to our team, but getting either KG or Pau would be great.

As for that Knick pick, I've been following the Knicks a little too closely this year and last, but I think we've really got a slim, slim chance to get Oden.  New York, for all of its flaws, is going to do better than last season.  The big problem is that there's even an outside chance that the Knicks may even win the terrible Atlantic division.

Usually New Jersey pulls out of their funk and brings some semblance of respectability, but it's going to be harder to do with Krstic out for the season and Jefferson ailing with whatever ankle problem he's got.

So that leaves the devastating teams of the Celtics?  Raptors?  Philadelphia?  The Knicks and Raptors right now are tied for most wins (12).

Most likely, New Jersey will still pull together a run, but I still give New York a decent outside chance to win the Atlantic, get into the playoffs, and take out any chance to win the Oden sweepstakes...  or even get a lottery pick for that matter.  Totally depressing, but it's a real possibility.

by Bullschicago on Dec 27, 2006 10:35 AM CST reply actions  

Make My Day
I'd pull the trigger on this deal in a minute.  I really hate to give up Tyrus, but Garnett is a once-in-a-generation type player.  With Garnett in a Bulls uniform and Deng becoming a really nice player at the 3, there isn't room for Nocioni anyway.  Plus, Nocioni is an unrestriced FA next year, no guarantee he's gonna stay and no way to keep him if he wants to go. Perhaps more than anything else, if PJ Brown isn't dealt for something, then we end up getting nothing for Tyson Chandler.  That would be a travesty.

One question about the pick...which I don't mind dealing for Garnett...some have said it can't be exchanged with NY if traded.  Does anyone know if this is the case?  It certainly makes it more valuable to us than anyone else at this point in the season, but this looks to be a deep draft anyway.

Just keep Deng out of the deal and we come out winners.

by rednomore on Dec 27, 2006 10:58 AM CST reply actions  

minor problem
...if PJ Brown isn't dealt for something, then we end up getting nothing for Tyson Chandler.

Getting rid of Chandler's big contract that wasn't worthy of his shabby play as a Bull was definetly something. It can be argued that the Bulls essentially dumped Chandler for Wallace too.

by Paxson Jackson @ Blog a Bull on Dec 27, 2006 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

NY pick
I think you could just give Minnesota a 'future first'. Then write in language saying that they give them the Knicks pick if they own it, otherwise their own pick. The Knicks pick actually goes to Utah if the Knicks finish with a top-5 (or something) record in the league. That isn't going to happen, but it still has to be officially determined before the Bulls own the pick.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 27, 2006 11:14 AM CST up reply actions  

I hope that's true.
The Bulls have to make this trade if Minnesota would go for it (and I doubt they could get a much better offer).  That team wins the East for sure.  Like, no competition at all.

Before anyone else brings it up, I'd just like to shoot down the idea that the Bulls could make the pick top three (or two, or one) protected.  There's no way Minnesota makes this deal without at least some shot at getting a top pick.  Especially since the Bulls' pick in '08 is likely to be at the end of the first round.

by Eddy Currys Broken Heart on Dec 27, 2006 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

NY Pick
Whoever ends up with the Bulls pick would also have the right to switch that pick with the Knicks.

For example, If the Bulls were to make a trade with Philadelphia which involved along with players trading their draft pick and receiving Denver's pick, the right to switch picks with NY would go with the Chicago pick.
The Bulls would not be able to take the NY pick and give the Knick's Denver's pick in return.  

Ye OldeBull

by OldeBull on Dec 27, 2006 11:20 AM CST up reply actions  

Malcolm Gladwell on Ben Gordon's Rookie Year
This change of heart on Gordon reminded me of Malcolm Gladwell's discussion of Ben Gordon's rookie year, using the "Wages of Wins" algorithms, here.

I don't buy the Berri or the Hollinger calculations as an end-all be-all, but they do show a nice perspective.  (For instance, Randy Foye had a +/- of -20 last night, but he did hit a Ben Gordon-like athletic game winner last night).  Anyway, Gladwell said,

Most egregious is the story of a young guard for the Chicago Bulls named Ben Gordon. Last season, Gordon finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting and was named the league's top "sixth man"--that is, the best non-starter--because he averaged an impressive 15.1 points per game in limited playing time. But Gordon rebounds less than he should, turns over the ball frequently, and makes such a low percentage of his shots that, of the ''s top thirty-three scorers--that is, players who score at least one point for every two minutes on the floor--Gordon's Win Score ranked him dead last.

Whatever those numbers say about Gordon's first year, they say nothing about his explosive scoring ability in the fourth quarters, which most assuredly won the bulls a few games.  It appears that at least this year, Gordon has minimized those flaws that make him a bad candidate to approach those nerdy algorithms.

I'm sick of my name, damn gwkd.

by GWKD on Dec 27, 2006 4:07 PM CST reply actions  

never read wages of wins
but from what reactions I've read apparently it is really hard on high-volume shooters.

by your friendly BullsBlogger on Dec 27, 2006 4:26 PM CST up reply actions  

link above didn't work, I think.
http://www.gladwell.com/2006/2006_05_29_a_game.html

and yes, it is a little hard on high volume shooters.

I'm sick of my name, damn gwkd.

by GWKD on Dec 27, 2006 4:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Clutch
I once got in an argument with a friend about the relative merits of Karl Malone and Michael Jordan.  He was a bit baseball fan and averred that there was "no such thing as clutch".  He said it had been proven mathematically and named various other people whom I greatly respected who would back him up on this.  All of these people were baseball folks, so based on my limited knowledge of the sport, I assume they know what they're talking about.

However, in basketball, I was able to convince him that there is such thing as clutch by examining both players' regular season statistics and playoff statistics.  (It should be noted that this was pre-Wizards Jordan and certainly pre-Lakers Malone).  The kicker was that Malone's FG% went way down in the playoffs (from 52 to 46 or something).  Defense should be better in the playoffs, particularly on the superstars, but Jordan's FG% remained consistent.

Anyway, I'm off on a tangent.  Ben Gordon has shown that he is clutch, and that's not going to show up in any kind of Hollinger numbers or anything.  You just have to see it.

Deng 4 MVP, 2008!

by corey williams corey benjamin on Dec 27, 2006 5:46 PM CST up reply actions  

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